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Hello and welcome to News Hour from the World Service of the BBC, live from London.

This is Owen Bennett Jones.

You might think the best way to predict what will happen in the strait of homers is to follow the money markets and the gambling websites,

where people place, after all, real money on future outcomes.

But the markets are so short term, they oscillate wildly, driven by social media messages, and it seems, inside information.

Meanwhile, political analysts are looking further ahead, but many express uncertainty about how all this can be resolved. The Iranian

blockade was counted by a US blockade, which has now been met with a renewed Iranian blockade. So,

for the moment, stalemate. This recording was posted

online by a site scanning radio traffic and ships' positions in the Gulf. It describes this

crackled radio instruction as the Iranian Navy warning a ship to change course.

Your order to go back to your departure immediately. are ordered to go back to your departure immediately.

You are order to go back to your departure immediately.

Do you get my message?

Okay, copied your message.

I will turn back.

Some ships have come under fire from the Iranians as they force them back from the

strait.

Captain Raman Kapoor is the skipper of an Indian oil tanker that's been held in the Gulf

since the start of the conflict.

He told the BBC what he'd heard.

We heard about that there is attack on the Indian ship.

...