This is a podcast from the archives of the BBC wreath lectures.

This lecture in the series The Two-Eged Sword, given by Lawrence Martin, was originally broadcast in 1981.

The strategic nuclear balance is a terrifying thing to live with, but it at least has the merit that its dangers are obvious and promote a great deal of salutary caution.

It therefore seems much more likely that if nuclear war ever does break out between

the major powers, it will be the result of miscalculation in some local confrontation

rather than a bolt from the blue launched because the strategic balance suddenly looks

favourable to one side or the other.

Doctrines for the limited and controlled use of strategic nuclear weapons

of the kind I discussed last week may do something to enhance the deterrent effect of these

weapons in such confrontations, but they must remain clumsy and dangerous instruments.

To make nuclear deterrence effective,

consequently requires a framework of more traditional military capability

that can be more readily applied to specific strategic problems.

By far, the most important potential arena for such conflicts

is Europe, where the interests of the superpowers

are most clearly defined,

and where the most powerful military forces in history have been concentrated.

If nuclear deterrence is the doctrinal centerpiece of contemporary strategy,

Europe is its geopolitical focus.

I must admit at the start that I would have discussed the European strategic scene

with rather more confidence a couple of years ago than I do today.

Events in Poland and the rise of neutralist or unilateralist sentiment in Western Europe

...