Stay tuned after the show for a message from Morgan Stanley.

Good Wednesday morning. I'm Jake Sherman and welcome to your political playbook audio briefing.

And I'm Anna Palmer. We've been making the case here for the past few days that this would be a

rocky September filled with stomach-ranging twists and turns over COVID relief and government

funding with an election lurking around the

corner. But there's an alternate theory, floating around some quarters of the White House and

Capitol, which we feel deserves some exploration. What if this month is completely boring and utterly

predictable? In other words, what if Congress passes a short-term government funding

bill before September 30th, fails to get a COVID relief bill, and goes home at the end of the month

until after the election? It's not too hard to imagine. Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer

suggested the Senate Republican COVID bill was toast before it was even released.

Democrats say Republicans don't understand the magnitude of the problem and are relying on a small

bill when a big one is needed. Republicans say Democrats can't take yes for an answer and are

rejecting the policies they support in hopes of Republicans going big after months of saying

they have no interest in going big. Senate Republicans can barely get 51 votes for their own policies.

So the GOP leadership has little room to maneuver or negotiate.

Democrats have dug their heels in for months and seem extraordinarily unlikely to strike a deal

without some major concessions from Republicans on state and local aid and school money.

Election money is a dem priority. Here's Senator John Thune, the number two Senate Republican on that.

I think that you know there's a lot of election money out there. We've put a lot out already.

The White House doesn't mind blaming Congress. Donald Trump doesn't cut legislative deals. He just talks about them. He has no relationship with Pelosi and no capital to cut a deal with her. Even Mnuchin gave up the farm when he and Pelosi suggested a shutdown was off the table. Both sides seem to be taking delight in blaming each other, and they remain trillions apart with no talk scheduled. If a shutdown is off the table and there's been literally no

movement in months, what should make us think anything will change? Many in the Capitol and

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