‘Send Her Back’: White Voters and Trump’s Path to Re-election

The Daily

The New York Times

Daily News, News

4.3 • 107.7K Ratings

🗓️ 24 July 2019

⏱️ 23 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The majority of Americans disapprove of President Trump. But in 2020, Democrats will still have a hard time defeating him. Here’s why. Guest: Nate Cohn, who covers elections, polling and demographics for The Upshot at The New York Times. For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Background reading: President Trump’s edge in the Electoral College may leave him closer to re-election than one might think based on his approval ratings — and may also blunt the electoral cost of actions like his attacks against four congresswomen of color.

Transcript

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0:00.0	From New York Times, Unmicable Barrow, this is the deal.
0:10.0	Today, the majority of Americans disapprove of President Trump.
0:16.0	Nate Cull, on Y in 2020, Democrats will still have such a hard time defeating him.
0:25.0	It's Wednesday, July 24th.
0:35.0	Nate, I've noticed on Twitter that people are kind of mad at you and it's only July of 2019.
0:41.0	They are. They are.
0:43.0	I think you should consider pacing yourself.
0:47.0	I should consider what?
0:49.0	Pacing yourself.
0:55.0	Yeah, that would probably be best for my mental health.
0:57.0	Give us Nate, the top line summary of what you reported last week.
1:01.0	The thing that riled up a few people.
1:03.0	So basically, the president's approval ratings are underwater nationwide, which means that there are more people who disapprove of the president than who approve of him.
1:11.0	But despite that, the president is better positioned to win reelection than the national polls suggest, because he is stronger in critical battle grounds.
1:18.0	Then he is nationwide.
1:20.0	And in fact, his position in the battleground states with respect to the country is even better than it was in 2016 when he was able to win the presidency while losing the national vote by two points.
1:32.0	So it allows for the possibility that the president could win the electoral college and therefore the presidency while losing the national vote by an even wider margin than he did in 2016.
1:42.0	How exactly does that work?
1:46.0	It works because of the electoral college.
1:48.0	And in most states, electoral college votes are awarded on a winner take all basis.
1:52.0	So what that means that the president can barely hold on to a bunch of states.
1:56.0	He gets the same number of electoral college votes as he would if he had won them by a lot.
	...

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