Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.

What's going on, guys? It is Monday, September 16th, and today we are talking about the SEC

and its regrets. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please

go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into

the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go

to bit.ly slash breakdown pod. Hello friends, happy Monday.

Today, our main story is about the SEC regretting its designation of crypto assets as

crypto assets securities.

But before we get into that, I wanted to do a quick macro update because we are two days

out from the Fed kicking off the rate cutting cycle and markets appear to be pushing for a

larger than usual first

cut. We've been tracking for a while now, that basically as the markets have settled on the

idea that there was a cut coming this week, the debate really was just whether they would go for

a 25 basis point cut or a 50 basis point cut. All the way up to the end of last week, especially

after a number of new economic data points,

it seemed pretty clear that we were headed for a 25 basis point cut, at least that's what I said

on Friday. However, something has changed. Fed Fund's futures priced in a 67% chance of a 50 basis

point cut overnight. Now, keep in mind that the market-based odds of that had narrowed to just

14% last Wednesday after the release of

August inflation numbers. That data, you'll remember, was relatively flat, save for a major

uptick in shelter inflation. And in the immediate aftermath, analysis was mixed. Some suggested

...