The Spectator magazine combines incisive political analysis with books and arts reviews of unrivaled authority.

Subscribe today for just 12 pounds and receive a 12 week subscription in print and online. Plus we'll give you a 20 pound

Amazon gift voucher absolutely free. Go to Spectator.co.uk.

forward slash voucher. Vulture. Hello and welcome to Coffey House Shots, the Spectators Daily Politics Podcast.

I'm Oscar Edmondson and I'm joined today by Katie Balls and James Hill. So we've just had the news

announced that there will be a by-election in Blackpool South. Former

Conservative MP Scott Benton has resigned, setting up a by-election to replace him. Katie, another... and quite likely there was going to be a by election. Now, ultimately Scott Benton has chosen to quit

as opposed to go through the process of the recall

petition that was happening otherwise.

And therefore, I think number 10 have been planning

for the eventuality of by election is just

that he's been brought ahead by the fact that Scott Benton just that he's going

rather than facing this petition which would probably most likely have hit the

right number. Now in terms of what to expect in this

by election I think it's pretty safe to say that the Tories are barring some

crazy event on course to lose it. The majority is only 3,690. So if you compare

that with some of the huge majorities that recently both label the Lib Dems have managed to

overturn against the Tories, this should be a walk in the park.

You wouldn't imagine that had too much campaigning and it should be that it goes to

labour because in 2017 it was a labour held seat. it's one of those 2019 victories on the

realignment which by all current polling and focus groups does not look like it

is here to stick and so will it add to this fatalistic narrative that the Tories are heading to a wipe out?

...