4.8 • 1.9K Ratings
🗓️ 12 February 2020
⏱️ 25 minutes
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The perils of predicting the future
Akimbo is a weekly podcast created by Seth Godin. He's the bestselling author of 19 books and a long-time entrepreneur, freelancer and teacher.
You can find out more about Seth by reading his daily blog at seths.blog and about the workshops at akimbo.com.
To submit a question and to see the show notes, please visit akimbo.link and press the appropriate button.
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0:00.0 | During the 10-year period between the year 2000 and 2009, the per capita consumption of |
0:07.3 | mozzarella cheese in the United States had a 99% correlation with the number of doctorates awarded in civil engineering. |
0:18.0 | Or, if you want more correlation than that, Between 2000 and 2010, the per capita consumption of |
0:27.0 | margarine had a 99% correlation with the divorce rate in Maine. |
0:35.0 | Hey, it's Seth. |
0:38.0 | And this is a Kimbo. We'll be back in a second after this message from our sponsor. |
0:47.0 | Hey it's Seth here with big news about a new workshop the |
0:57.2 | Creative Workshop a workshop for people who are creative for living who seek to find their voice, spread their idea, and maybe even get paid for it. |
1:08.9 | It features interviews with me and people like Surilame or Christian McBride, but more important it features you, |
1:16.0 | your work, your craft, where you seek to go. |
1:18.7 | We will help you find your voice. |
1:21.3 | Check out the Creatives Workshop.com. It's a year in the making. I'm really proud of it and I'm hoping you'll join us. We'll see you there. Thanks. |
1:31.7 | You may have heard some of these spurious correlations before. |
1:36.0 | 95%, 99% correlations between obviously unrelated factors. But how do we know they're obviously unrelated? Statistics is |
1:49.2 | a fascinating science. It is a science that helps us see the past, understand the present, and predict the future. |
1:58.6 | If you want to know if Oreos get sagi in milk, you don't have to dip every single Oreo ever made into a glass of |
2:07.5 | milk to come to the conclusion that they do. |
2:11.8 | Statistics with the appropriate sample size helps us see that there is in fact not just a |
2:17.8 | correlation but causation between dipping your cookie and milk and the cookie getting sagi. |
2:25.4 | Where we get in trouble is this. There has to be correlations of unrelated items over a 10-year span. |
2:35.0 | Because we have so many to choose from. |
2:38.3 | We can look at every statistic about divorces, |
... |
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