Welcome to the Eric Erickson Show podcast, Hour One.

Hello America, I'm back. Welcome. It is Eric Erickson here across the nation. The phone number 8779773-7-4-425 should you wish to be on the program.

I got to switch stuff up a little bit on the fly here because we've got some news we've got

to deal with out of the gate and that is the markets or the Dow is down 335 points.

The NASDAQ down almost 200.

S&P 500 down 45.

Now this is significant because we've got new data out and the revisions to inflation are worse than expected.

And a key Fed inflation measure rose 6 tenths of a percent in January, which is more than they expected.

The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy.

They exclude food and energy because food and energy are more volatile than other items.

And so you exclude food and energy and personal consumption expenditures still rose 6 tenths of a percent.

That was up 4.7 percent from a year before.

Wall Street had been expecting a 5 tenths of a percent.

Including food and energy consumption, headline inflation increased 6 tenths of a percent.

This is bad because it suggests that the Fed is going to have to continue to raise interest rates even more.

It is looking less and less likely that they can slow

the economy without triggering a recession. This is the Cleveland Fed president. The problem,

President, Master, is history is not really on your side. You don't have you as I mean the Federal

Reserve, not you personally, doesn't have a terrific track record of bringing down inflation without a recession and this is

the other side of Andrew's question which is do you think a recession is likely

can you avoid a recession and still get back to your 2% target so my

forecast is that growth will slow this year and be well below trend I still

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