RWH023: Defensive Investing In Dangerous Times W/ Guy Spier

The Investor's Podcast (We Study Billionaires) - The Investor’s Podcast Network

Stig Brodersen

Business, Education, Investing

4.6 • 3.6K Ratings

🗓️ 19 March 2023

⏱️ 138 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

William chats with renowned hedge fund manager Guy Spier. Since launching the Aquamarine Fund in 1997, Guy has beaten the S&P 500 by 200 percentage points & the MSCI World index by 364 percentage points. He’s also the author of “The Education of a Value Investor.” In this conversation, Guy speaks candidly about the challenges he’s facing, including his fear that Russia’s war in Ukraine could escalate, creating a systemic risk for investors. He explains how he’s positioning his portfolio to survive & prosper in these perilous times, & he shares practical advice on how to maintain equanimity amid all this uncertainty. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 03:56 - How living in a calm & predictable environment helps Guy Spier to invest better. 12:04 - How he resisted the temptation to buy overvalued tech stocks during the recent bubble. 26:11 - Why we must beware of the psychological effects of rapidly rising or falling stock prices. 30:04 - Why Guy refuses to invest in any business that can’t fund all of its growth internally. 44:18 - How going to Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting helps to reinforce rational behavior. 53:57 - What Warren Buffett told Guy Spier & Mohnish Pabrai about the perils of debt. 1:13:04 - Why Guy regards the war in Ukraine as a potentially systemic threat to investors. 1:11:56 - Where he’s investing in order to survive & prosper in these times of heightened risk and why he’s invested heavily in China, despite the political & economic dangers. 1:13:55 - Why he’s avoiding weaker countries, including Indonesia & the Philippines. 1:15:01 - How he wrestles with the tricky question of whether to trim or hold his winners. 1:18:17 - Why he’ll never short another stock. 1:19:31 - How he constructs a portfolio that helps him to maintain his emotional equilibrium. 1:43:35 - Why he diverged from Mohnish on the risks & rewards of investing in Turkey. 1:59:08 - What Guy & Mohnish have learned from the stunning success of their friend Li Lu. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, and the other community members. Listen to William Green’s 2022 interview with Guy Spier on How to Build Enduring Wealth (RWH009) or watch the video. Listen to William’s 2022 interview with Guy on High-Performance Habits (RWH010) or watch the video. Listen to William’s interview with Ray Dalio on the “Richer, Wiser, Happier” podcast or watch the video. Guy Spier’s book, “The Education of a Value Investor” – Read reviews of the book. Guy Spier interviews William Green about his book, “Richer, Wiser, Happier.” Subscribe to Guy Spier’s Free Newsletter. Guy Spier’s podcast and website. William Green’s book, “Richer, Wiser, Happier” – read the reviews of this book. William Green’s Twitter. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Bluehost Fintool PrizePicks Vanta Onramp SimpleMining Fundrise TurboTax Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Transcript

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0:00.0	You're listening to TI-P.
0:03.0	Hi there, thanks so much for joining me for this episode of The Richer Wiser Happier Podcast.
0:08.0	My guest today is Guy Speer, a renowned hedge fund manager who's run the Akumarine Fund for the last quarter of a century.
0:16.0	Since launching the fund in 1997, Guy has beaten the S&P 500 by 200 percentage points
0:23.0	and the MSCI World Index by 364 percentage points.
0:28.0	A lot of very smart and fiercely driven hedge fund managers have fallen by the wayside during that time.
0:34.0	So the fact that Guy has not only survived but beaten the indexes is no small feat.
0:41.0	This conversation is a special one for me because Guy is also one of my closest friends.
0:47.0	I first encountered him when we were undergraduate students at Oxford more than 30 years ago.
0:53.0	He came first in his class in economics there, then got his MBA from Harvard Business School,
0:59.0	and later set up shoppers a hedge fund manager in New York City.
1:03.0	I was also living in New York back then, working as a financial journalist for various magazines,
1:09.0	so we used to get together fairly regularly for lunch in Manhattan,
1:13.0	and I would bombard him with so many questions that he'd be utterly exhausted by the end of the meal.
1:20.0	In any case, I became one of the first investors in Guy's fund,
1:24.0	and I've been invested in it for something like 22 years.
1:28.0	I later became an advisor to his investment fund, and I edited his annual report for many years.
1:34.0	But what really made us close was that I helped him to write his memoir,
1:38.0	the Educational Value Investor, which was published in 2015.
1:43.0	By then, Guy had left New York and was living in Switzerland,
1:47.0	so I basically moved into his home in Zurich for several months while we raced to finish the book.
1:53.0	Writing a book is an incredibly intense experience, and you never really forget it when you've been in the trenches with someone in that way.
	...

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