ROLLUP: Prediction Market War | Base Leaves Optimism | Tomasz Exits EF | Clarity Act Lives | Harvard Buys ETH

Bankless

Tech News, Technology, News

4.7 • 1.2K Ratings

🗓️ 20 February 2026

⏱️ 69 minutes

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Summary

A legal war over prediction markets just went public. Ryan and David break down the CFTC’s claim of exclusive authority, the backlash from state officials and lawmakers, and why this fight is really about whether markets or politics get to define truth. They explore why AI-powered prediction markets may be crypto’s strongest product-market fit yet, and why that scares regulators. Plus: Harvard rotates from Bitcoin into Ethereum, Base breaks from Optimism, Zora expands to Solana, the Ethereum Foundation leadership reshuffles, signs of life for the Clarity Act, institutions buying DeFi tokens, Europe’s unrealized-gains wealth tax, autonomous “life” on Ethereum, OpenAI’s EVMbench, and what ETHDenver says about where crypto goes next. --- 📣ROCKET POOL | PERMISSIONLESS STAKING https://bankless.cc/Rocketpool --- BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 🔮POLYMARKET | #1 PREDICTION MARKET https://bankless.cc/polymarket-podcast 🪐GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/galaxy-podcast ⚡EUPHORIA | REAL-TIME ONE-TAP TRADING https://bankless.cc/euphoria 🏅BITGET TRADFI | TRADE GOLD WITH USDT https://bankless.cc/bitget 🌐BRIX | EMERGING MARKET YIELD https://bankless.cc/brix 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | ONCHAIN INSIGHTS https://bankless.cc/TDRpro --- TIMESTAMPS & RESOURCES 0:00 Intro 2:27 MARKETS https://x.com/hiwhaledegen/status/2023372409303450065 4:33 PREDICTION MARKETS REGULATORY FIGHT https://x.com/ChairmanSelig/status/2023744651216240966 https://x.com/GovChristie/status/2023821634344550892 https://x.com/SenWarren/status/2023877196323188764 https://x.com/govcox/status/2023795059980988874 https://x.com/RepCasten/status/2024212119491588303 https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/2023794107274194944 https://x.com/SenatorHagerty/status/2023802779899252901 https://x.com/SenMcCormickPA/status/2023831838461194501 https://x.com/tyler/status/2023761976481259585 https://x.com/kylascan/status/2023786873605476719 https://x.com/ADoricko/status/2023834015699173398 https://x.com/abcampbell/status/2024281289700802568 https://x.com/NTmoney/status/2024505537514394104 25:18 BASE LEAVES OPTIMISM https://blog.base.dev/next-chapter-for-base-chain-1 https://x.com/lex_node/status/2024181767813427402 https://x.com/intangiblecoins/status/2024184295493886317 https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/optimism https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/arbitrum https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polygon https://x.com/web3_data/status/2023716576126755249 https://polymarket.com/event/will-base-launch-a-token-in-2025-341/?via=bankles 35:24 ZORA EXPANDS TO SOLANA https://x.com/zora/status/2023797263651533053 https://x.com/js_horne/status/2023809356739838390 https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/2023872648032272642 https://x.com/haydenzadams/status/2023990750082445561 40:04 ETHEREUM FOUNDATION SHAKEUP https://x.com/tkstanczak/status/2022315368430067847 https://x.com/VitalikButerin/status/2022318344288792618 https://x.com/aerugoettinea/status/2022318885047779576 https://x.com/dannyryan/status/2022318587281572257 44:56 CLARITY ACT SIGNS OF LIFE https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/2024238762021036201 https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026/?via=bankles https://x.com/altcoindaily/status/2024174959707541638 49:16 APOLLO x MORPHO (INSTITUTIONS BUYING DEFI TOKENS) https://x.com/AggrNews/status/2022482933974544669 https://x.com/RyanWatkins_/status/2022680420270379400 https://x.com/DefiIgnas/status/2023054776762876157 52:14 AAVE TOKEN ALIGNMENT PROPOSAL https://x.com/TheiaResearch/status/2022037595568603406 https://x.com/Marczeller/status/2022073505341219033 https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/aave 56:09 NETHERLANDS UNREALIZED GAINS WEALTH TAX https://x.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/2021978390870347923 https://x.com/balajis/status/2022360046122995851 58:55 AUTONOMOUS LIFE ON ETHEREUM (CONWAY) https://x.com/0xSigil/status/2023877649475731671 https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2024254432498639322 1:04:56 OPENAI EVMbench https://openai.com/index/introducing-evmbench/ 1:06:24 ETHDENVER REFLECTIONS https://x.com/EthereumDenver/status/2024234929840935318 https://x.com/TrustlessState/status/2024215091856527753 1:08:05 CLOSING & DISCLAIMERS --- Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures

Transcript

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0:00.0	It is the third week of February.
0:06.2	It is time for the Bankless Weekly Rollup.
0:09.4	David, there's a fight for prediction markets.
0:11.6	It was hot last week, and it just got even hotter on the week.
0:14.6	It got way spicier.
0:16.5	A lot of people joining the fight.
0:18.5	CFTC chair Mike Selig put out a one-minute clip on Twitter, basically planting the flag,
0:24.7	claiming prediction markets as in the domain of the CFTC, causing a ton of people to join
0:30.1	and pick side.
0:31.2	Senators, Representative.
0:32.9	Ryan, what side do you think Elizabeth Warren picked?
0:34.8	Because she got into the fight, too.
0:36.5	Probably not on our side. Let me just say that. I've never seen her on our side. Which is bullish for us. Yes. Yes. Also, executive director of the Ethereum Foundation, Tamash, one of the co-executive directors. He's leaving after just one year. Why? Why is he leaving, David? And who's going to replace him? What does this mean for Ethereum?
0:55.2	There's also just some alliance changes going on.
0:57.9	Base has leaving the optimism OP stack.
1:00.7	They're going and rolling their own layer two code.
1:03.6	And then Zora is also launching on Solana, expanding into Solana instead of just being on base.
1:28.1	We got the alliance is shifting around. That's fascinating. Also, AVE Labs has got a proposal to fix the AVE token. We'll weigh in on that. Also, there's some life in the Clarity Act, David. It just might pass. The odds spike to about 70% at one point this week, and Brian Armstrong has weighed in.
1:31.2	And I've got to tell you about this project that I was looking up in the week.
1:37.5	I'm not sure if it is autonomous life on Ethereum, or if this is just performance art.
1:40.1	We'll talk about the Conway project, all this and more.
1:44.8	But before we do, we got some shoutouts from our friends and sponsors over at Rocket Pool.
	...

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