Well, howdy there internet people, it's Bow again, and welcome to the Roads with Bow.

Today is April 18th, 2024, and we're going to do a Roads Not Take an episode that is topic specific so we will call this episode 34.5

Today we are going to talk about Ukraine and stuff dealing with Ukraine because there's been a lot of

developments that haven't been like groundbreaking but they're important and they will become more

important as far as context goes in the coming months and none of it was able to

make it to the other channel because of, well, everything that's going on.

Okay, so starting off, one of the big questions everybody wants to know as far as Western

estimates go they suggest that Russia has 8 to 18 months left, like staying power in Ukraine. They've been pretty good at evading and getting around sanctions. However, they have issues with

mobilization and those will those are likely to persist and some of these

the there some of their ability to get around the sanctions may also become limited to do to other events in the world.

Now, from the other side, a Chinese professor wrote a piece saying that Russia was, quote,

doomed in Ukraine.

And it pointed to a number of deficits

that the Russian military has.

I think the thing that was the most important really had to do with

their lack of intelligence and how even if they had valid real-time intelligence, it wasn't getting to the decision-makers because

Putin is doing a lot of micromanaging.

Now on the actual field Russia is slowly making gains.

They're paying a just ridiculously high cost for them,

but they're making gains.

That trend will likely continue unless USAID arrives.

It's important to remember that if Russia were to succeed in capturing all of the territory

...