Richard Thaler & Cade Massey on the NFL Draft, Misbehaving GM's, & Exploiting Inefficiencies | #477

The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing

The Idea Farm

Business, Investing, Management

4.7 • 938 Ratings

🗓️ 19 April 2023

⏱️ 60 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today’s special episode is to prepare you for the NFL draft next week. Nobel laureate Richard Thaler is back with Wharton’s Cade Massey to talk about their famous paper on the NFL draft that even the GOAT Bill Belichick read. The guys share what they learned years ago – NFL teams overvalue the top picks, shouldn’t trade up, and even after all the scouting teams do, their ability to pick the best player at any pick is about the same as flipping a coin. We talk about why the Bears won the trade against the Panthers this year, what they think about Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy’s success last year, and the future of data analytics in sports. As we wind down, we dive into why this inefficiency still exists after they published a paper almost 20 years ago and how teams battle some of the same issues asset managers face – career risk, impatient stakeholders, and model aversion. *Click here to listen to Richard Thaler’s first appearance on the podcast **If you enjoyed this episode, listen to poker champion & decision-making expert Annie Duke on the show last year ----- Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Today's episode is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. YCharts offers a suite of intuitive tools, including numerous visualizations, comprehensive security screeners, portfolio construction, communication outputs, and market monitoring. Visit YCharts to start your free trial and be sure to mention "Meb" for 20% off your subscription. (New clients only). And be sure to check out their latest Resource Deck, "Supercharged YCharts Visuals." ----- Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here. ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at [email protected] ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to the Mebb Faver Show, where the focus is on helping you grow and preserve your wealth.
0:11.0	Join us as we discuss the craft of investing and
0:13.4	uncover new and profitable ideas all to help you grow wealthier and wiser. Better
0:17.4	investing starts here.
0:18.8	Meff Baber is the co-founder and chief investment officer at Cambria Investment Management.
0:23.4	Due to industry regulations, he will now discuss any of Cambria's funds on this podcast.
0:27.1	All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion
0:31.1	of Cambria Investment Management or its affiliates.
0:33.4	For more information, visit cambria Investments.com.
0:39.6	Welcome, my friends, we got such a fun episode to prepare you for the NFL draft next week.
0:45.0	Nobel laureate Richard Thaler is back with Wharton's Kaid Massey to talk about their old
0:49.5	paper on the NFL draft that even the goat Bill Check has read.
0:54.0	The guys share what they learned years ago, namely that NFL teams overvalue the top picks,
0:59.6	they shouldn't trade up, and even after all the scouting teams do, their ability to pick the best
1:04.2	player, any pick is about the same as flipping a coin. We talk about why the Bears won the
1:09.6	trade against the Panthers this year, what they think about Mr Irrelevant,
1:13.2	Brock Purdy's success last year, and the future of data analytics in sports.
1:18.2	As we wind down, we dive into why this inefficiency still exists
1:21.8	after they publish a paper almost 20 years ago and how teams
1:24.9	battle some of the same issues asset managers face like career risk, inpatient stakeholders
1:31.1	and model aversion.
1:32.5	American Farmland is disappearing at an alarming rate.
	...

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