Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis.

Good afternoon. Today is Wednesday, April 16th, and I'm your host, Kim Con. Our top story so far. Consumer

confidence may be tumbling, but the willingness to spend didn't crumble last month. March retail sales rose

1.4% month-on-month, in line with the consensus and up from 0.2% prior. Core retail sales,

excluding motor vehicles and parts, rose 0.5% month-on-month versus up 0.3% consensus, and

up 0.7% prior revised from up 0.3%. UBS economists say,

it's clear from high frequency reports that many consumers in the market for big-ticket

imported items brought forward their purchases to get ahead of fear tariffs. The reports suggest

that while we are likely to avoid a negative first quarter GDP print, it will only just

scrape above zero,

and the potential rebound in the second quarter is unlikely to be huge,

given tariffs are soon going to be noticed at a time when consumer confidence is under pressure on three fronts.

One, anticipation of squeeze spending power after tariffs push up prices.

Two, worries about weakening jobs market amidst government spending cuts, and

three, declining wealth after the sell-off in equity in bond markets.

But Wells Fargo economists say that while consumers are playing a bit of the beat-the-clock

with tariffs, there is more to the story here.

It may be difficult to reconcile, but once again, consumer spending is managing to avoid

the gravitational pull of all

the negative dynamics that might have otherwise held it back. Recall that the worst of the recent

equity market volatility did not take place until April. March was simply a strong month for retail

sales, they added. It also remains to be seen how consumers act in the wake of tariffs. Even as

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