RERUN: How to Figure Out Whether a Crypto Token Is Worth Its Trading Price - Ep. 756

Unchained

Laura Shin

News, Tech News, Business News

4.6 • 1.3K Ratings

🗓️ 27 December 2024

⏱️ 84 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Low float and high fully diluted valuation (FDV) coins have been a hot topic in crypto this year. Yet, understanding these coins' unrealized gains is critical for truly grasping their pricing. In this episode, Jose Macedo of Delphi Digital and Ari Paul of BlockTower Capital dive deep into metrics that help assess a coin’s true value. They discuss why upcoming token unlocks may put downward pressure on the market, how token unlocks could be better structured for long-term success, and whether VCs are extracting more value than they contribute. Show highlights: Why upcoming token unlock events are creating anxiety in the crypto market The role unrealized gains play in token price volatility How certain projects manipulate circulating supply metrics to influence perceptions Tips for everyday investors to uncover accurate token information The impact of secondary market trading on anticipated token unlock events Why short-term token strategies often prevail over those focused on sustained success Jose’s insights into why simple, time-based unlock models may outperform complex systems Ari’s thoughts on the SEC’s investigations into VCs and their parallels to pump-and-dump schemes Why many crypto projects face a bearish outlook due to pending token unlocks How the intersection of memecoins and VC involvement could shape the next market cycle Visit our website for breaking news, analysis, op-eds, articles to learn about crypto, and much more: unchainedcrypto.com Thank you to our sponsors! Polkadot Guests: Jose Macedo, founder at Delphi Labs Ari Paul, CIO of BlockTower Capital Previous appearances on Unchained: Ari Paul on Why Bitcoin Is a Good Value Buy Ari Paul of BlockTower Capital on the Crypto Downturn and Why It Could Change Direction Links High FDV and unlocks: Unchained: How ‘Fully Diluted Valuation’ Can Be a Very Dangerous Metric for Crypto Markets to Rely On Who’s to Blame for the Underperformance of Low Float, High FDV Tokens? 80% of Tokens on Binance Are Down Since Listing Date: SwissBorg Researcher Cobie newsletter: New launches (part 1) - private capture, phantom pricing Rocknblock: Token vesting explainer CoinDesk: 'Liquid Vesting' Is Oxymoronic Blockchain Feature That Lets Early Investors Sell Without Waiting Jose’s thread that inspired the episode Ari’s post responding to Jose’s thread Token.unlocks.app: Token vesting tracker Solutions: Hack VC: Potential Solutions to Crypto's Unlock Problem Colony Lab: Early-Stage Program & Liquid Vesting Imran Khan’s tweet on Blast https://x.com/lmrankhan/status/1806040646433522149 Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:46 Token unlocks creating market concerns 11:06 Unrealized gains to market cap ratio impact 13:06 Token supply manipulation tactics 21:11 How investors can verify token projects 24:21 Secondary market trading and unlock impacts 35:36 Current token launch strategy persistence 41:46 Short-term vs long-term project decisions 47:21 Time-based vs metric-based token unlocks 53:51 SEC investigations into VC practices 59:56 Bearish outlook for upcoming token unlocks 1:06:36 Investor risks in current cycle 1:13:11 Future of VCs in crypto and memecoins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hey everyone. This year for the holidays, we're airing a rerun of one of our most popular episodes this year,
0:06.1	a conversation between Ari Paul of Block Tower Capital and Jose Macedo of Delphi Digital about how to value coins,
0:13.0	the difference between circulating supply versus fully diluted value, and the impact of token unlocks on price.
0:18.9	When I checked my Kato Yapp score, it said that the week of my
0:21.6	highest rank was the week that this episode aired. If you know of any newbies to crypto, and let's
0:26.6	face it, this bull market has brought in a lot right now. This would be a good show to share with
0:31.1	them so they understand various factors that can affect token price that they might be unaware
0:35.1	of. And if you yourself think that the bullish market right
0:38.1	now might be causing you to lose your cool-headedness when it comes to investing, then this
0:42.2	episode may be a good refresher. I hope you enjoy it. And happy New Year. In the modern
0:47.1	air drop meta, it's just like civil farmers and like hyper-sophisticated people who are looking
0:52.1	to just civil farm and then dump your token, right?
0:55.3	And it's just a silly way to distribute your token. Like it's what we have because the SEC,
1:02.0	it's funny. Like everything the SEC did made it worse for retail. Like made everything
1:06.4	worse for retail. You know, like air drops isn't like moving everyone to this air drop meta as an
1:11.8	example, right? I mean, I don't need to harp on that. I think everyone knows, knows that.
1:16.1	Wait, but just to make clear, so does that mean that you think ICOs were a better mechanism?
1:21.7	Definitely. Yeah. I think that was definitely a better mechanism because, I mean, it was like,
1:27.0	it wasn't better for us as venture investors, but I think it's better for the industry as a whole because, I mean, it was like, it wasn't better for us as venture
1:28.3	investors, but I think it's better for the industry as a whole because, you know, it's very easy
1:32.1	to look at the data and you see that the upside in these projects, once the SEC came in and banned
1:36.7	ICOs, just moved private. Like, you had the same level of upside in the new all ones as the,
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