Reopening the Economy

Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.4 • 1K Ratings

🗓️ 30 April 2020

⏱️ 27 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

With mitigation measures leading to an apparent leveling off of case growth globally at the same time that the economic costs of such measures continue to mount, several countries around the world have begun to plan for—or have already started to implement—economic reopening. But absent herd immunity or a vaccine, such reopenings increase the risk of a resurgence. With this in mind, what a safe reopening might look like, how well-positioned the US is to achieve one and how quickly reopening would really translate into economic recovery is Top of Mind. In this episode, we consult three experts on these questions: University of Pennsylvania’s Dr. Zeke Emanuel, Duke University’s Dr. Mark McClellan and Harvard University’s Dr. Barry Bloom. Finally, with more complete economic normalization only likely with an effective testing regime, treatments, or a widely available vaccine, we discuss where we are on all of the above. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0	From Goldman Sachs research, this is Alison Nathan.
0:03.0	Welcome to Top of Mind, a podcast that explores macroeconomic issues on the minds of our clients.
0:09.0	In this episode, we focus on the topic that's on almost everyone's minds right now, how and when to reopen the U.S. economy following aggressive lockdowns to slow the spread of COVID-19, which have taken a huge toll on economic growth and employment.
0:33.8	We'll look at what a safe reopening might look like, how well positioned the U.S. is to achieving
0:38.7	one, and how quickly reopening would really translate into economic recovery, all things
0:44.2	which are clearly top of mind.
0:46.7	For some perspective on this, I first turned to Dr. Zika Manuel, Vice Provost for Global
0:51.5	Initiatives at the University of Pennsylvania and a former health policy
0:55.3	advisor in the Obama administration. I started by asking him about the national reopening guidelines
1:01.1	recently rolled out by the Trump administration. When we think about the guidelines that the
1:05.8	administration rolled out for reopening, where do they get it right and where do they fall short?
1:11.5	So I think they got right three important things. That we're going to have a phase reopening.
1:16.7	They had three phases. That may or may not be the right number of phases, but that it's phase is
1:21.8	really important. Recognize that different kinds of non-essential businesses are probably going to open at different
1:28.0	stages.
1:28.5	You're going to start with some, and you're going to have others at the end and also emphasizes
1:34.8	special protections for vulnerable populations, particularly people living in elderly facilities.
1:41.3	So I think those are right and appropriate.
1:46.0	There are lots of things wrong with the plan. The triggers or gating they have or opening, I think, are incorrect.
1:52.0	They want to open based upon 14 days of declining cases and hospital capacity.
1:58.0	Hospital capacity seems right, but the number of cases,
2:01.6	the trigger, seems wrong.
	...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Previous episode | Next episode

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Goldman Sachs, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of Goldman Sachs and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.