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Fantasy Football Today Beyond the Box Score

Regression for Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow (05/24 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Fantasy Football Today Beyond the Box Score

CBS Sports, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Sports, NFL, Rookies, NFL Rookies

Football, Sports

4.9719 Ratings

🗓️ 24 May 2022

⏱️ 6 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Lamar Jackson will have positive regression and Joe Burrow will have negative regression in 2022. What does that mean? Why does Adam disagree with Heath on Burrow? 

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Transcript

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0:00.0

It's not often that Heath and I argue during the mic check, but that is happening.

0:08.2

And welcome to fantasy football today in five.

0:09.9

Let's talk regression candidates.

0:12.0

All right, Heath, I know I'm really looking forward to debating Joe Burrow with you for the next several months.

0:19.7

And throughout the season, I guess.

1:09.3

But he's one of the two quarterbacks you want to talk about when it comes to regression. And these two guys, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, had really interesting seasons and kind of different directions. Who do you want to start with, Burrow or Jackson? I think that's really interesting to talk about both of them because they're both in the AFC North. They're both 25 years old. Burrow actually 28 days older than Lamar Jackson. But we know Joe Burrell is definitely going to get better. And Lamar Jackson's already been as good as he can ever be. Who said that? We're starting off spicy. I didn't say that. No, we're talking about regression. And I said that I think that it's really interesting to pair these two up because we just saw Burrow put up an insane season in terms of efficiency, 8.9 yards per attempt as a passer, 6.5% touchdown rate, not quite as insane, but more than double his touchdown rate as a rookie. And it looks very similar to the second year explosion we saw from Lamar Jackson,

1:14.0

except, you know, Jackson was a lot better and won the MVP and broke fantasy football

1:18.2

scoring.

1:19.1

But Jackson had a 9% touchdown rate, averaged 7.8 yards per attempt, by far the best of

1:24.9

his career, and then saw those numbers come down in 2020. And then the really

1:29.7

interesting part is that Jackson last year, the touchdown rate, just crazy, 382 pass attempts,

1:37.2

16 touchdowns. In that 2019 MVP season, 401 pass attempts, 36 touchdowns.

1:45.0

Right.

1:46.0

His touchdown rate passing was less than half of what it was back in 2019 and two points

1:52.0

lower than his career rate.

1:54.0

Not just that, but Jackson had two rushing touchdowns last year on 133 rush attempts.

1:59.0

He'd never had fewer than five any other year of his career.

2:04.1

Right.

2:04.7

And the five was probably the half season, I'm assuming.

2:07.1

The five was the half season.

2:08.6

It was more rush attempts than last year, though, because he ran so much that year.

2:12.6

And I think the thing that kind of puts another way to look at it is that Lamar Jackson last year

...

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