Recession Watch: The Perfect Call
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 27 January 2023
⏱️ 19 minutes
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Summary
The month of January has launched 2023 in a very different direction than 2022 thus far. I do not mean because markets are up thus far whereas they were down in 2022 (though technically both of those things are true). But beyond the mere directional change in markets (which could reverse at the drop of a hat), the themes and factors influencing markets – in other words, the stuff that matters – has changed. Moving way down the totem pole has been what the Fed is doing or is expected to do, and moving way up in priority (to the very top) is what will happen in the economy as a result of what the Fed has already done.
I am going to elaborate on what that means in today’s Dividend Cafe, and more importantly, make the case for and against a 2023 recession. And I hope that after reading my case you will decide I have made the perfect call … Let’s jump in to the Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com [DividendCafe.com] https://bahnsen.co/3WIokXu TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Well, hello and welcome to the Dividend Cafe and forgive me for the casual attire, but I am jumping on an airplane here. |
| 0:20.0 | It has been an absolutely |
| 0:21.8 | phenomenal week in New York City. I assure you, very long suit and tie days, but nevertheless, |
| 0:28.0 | very productive, some wonderful meetings. And now I'm really looking forward to getting back |
| 0:33.1 | to California with my family and back in the Newport Beach office all of next week. Today's Dividend |
| 0:41.1 | Cafe is going to explore this issue about recession. I've written Dividendon Cafe is about recession |
| 0:47.5 | before. One of the themes I've had, and I wrote one that was well trafficked last year about the dreaded R word, one of the |
| 0:57.6 | themes I've had is still very important to me, although it's not really where we're going with |
| 1:02.1 | today, which is the unpredictability of how to apply a portfolio or market call to recessionary |
| 1:10.4 | dynamics. |
| 1:11.6 | That, in other words, if someone did know, and I'm about to make the case that no one most |
| 1:16.9 | certainly does, if someone did know what exactly was about to take place with the economy, |
| 1:23.1 | I do not believe that there are portfolio managers, and I most certainly do not believe |
| 1:29.3 | there are regular investors that could take that data |
| 1:34.3 | and perfectly apply it. |
| 1:37.3 | That the challenge would still be there |
| 1:40.3 | as to knowing what has been priced in |
| 1:43.3 | and knowing certain timing issues, knowing the depths |
| 1:48.0 | and severities that could be at stake and all of that type of stuff. And just in terms of |
| 1:53.9 | market response in general, there's a confounding element to markets that applies to currency, |
| 1:59.9 | to fixed income, to the rate markets, to commodities, |
... |
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