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The Breakdown

Recession or Soft Landing?

The Breakdown

Blockworks

Business, Investing

4.8806 Ratings

🗓️ 10 September 2024

⏱️ 14 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

With a Fed rates cut all but assured, the question has shifted to whether it will be a 25bps or 50bps cut. Alongside that speculation is a competition for narrative interpretation. Soft-landing on the one hand, recession on the other. Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto Subscribe to the newsletter: https://breakdown.beehiiv.com/ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

0:09.3

It's a daily podcast on Macro, Bitcoin, and the Big Picture Power Shifts remaking our world.

0:18.4

What's going on, guys? It is Monday, September 9th, and today we are going macro.

0:23.9

Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe to it,

0:27.5

give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation,

0:30.9

come join us on the breakers discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit.ly

0:34.6

slash breakdown pod. Well, friends, the August jobs report was released

0:38.7

on Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showing continued deterioration in the labor market.

0:44.7

Headline non-farm payrolls grew by 142,000 below expectations, but significantly better than

0:49.9

the 89,000 reported for July. The unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.2%, and so that pair

0:56.1

of headline statistics were not bad. They indicated some weakness, but weren't the type of data that

1:00.5

would trigger fears that a recession is already underway. Digging below the headlines, however,

1:05.1

the statistics were far more gloomy. U6, referred to as real unemployment, rose to 7.9%.

1:11.4

Its highest reading since October 2021.

1:14.5

This statistic includes under-employed workers, workers who are marginally attached to the labor

1:18.8

force, and those who have given up looking for work.

1:21.5

The breakdown of full-time work and half-time work reinforced this idea.

1:24.9

According to the household survey, employment rose by 168,000 jobs overall

1:28.7

in August. However, this figure was largely about churn from full-time work into part-time work.

1:33.9

438,000 full-time positions were lost, while part-time positions increased by 527,000. The report included

1:41.0

major downward revisions for the past two months. July's numbers were reduced by 25,000, while a third of payroll gains were wiped from the

1:48.0

June data, a revision of 61,000 jobs.

...

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