Recession in 2023 Is a 'Done Deal'

Stansberry Investor Hour

Stansberry Research

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4.4 • 677 Ratings

🗓️ 31 October 2022

⏱️ 62 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

In this week's episode, Dan welcomes back four-time Stansberry Investor Hour veteran Marko Papic.

Currently, the geopolitics and macroeconomics specialist serves as a partner and the chief strategist of asset manager Clocktower Group. Before that, Marko was the senior vice president and chief strategist on geopolitical strategy at global investment research firm BCA Research for nearly a decade. He has also worked at Stratfor, one of the world's top geopolitical-intelligence platforms.

Marko last joined us in late January, shortly before the Russia-Ukraine war exploded. Today, he's turning his attention to someone "much more relevant and powerful than Vlad[imir Putin]"... chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell.

We realize the topic of our central bank's next steps might seem worn out. After all, it has been splashed across the top news headlines daily for most of 2022. But the Fed's actions are massively influencing the global financial system right now. As Marko says...

Literally everything that is going on in the world is kind of irrelevant if J. Powell continues to be very hawkish.

When the Fed decides it has had enough, everything else can start mattering again. Until then, it's really just all about them.

Marko explains the Fed setup that could set off "the most calamitous recession in the history of the United States," and he shares his preferred indicators for a recession.

He also discusses the Paul Volcker versus Arthur Burns debate... two former Fed chairmen who defined their careers by tackling inflation. Will Powell follow in Burns' dovish footsteps or take a more uncompromising stance like Volcker did?

Finally, Marko highlights a future threat to the markets: the 2024 presidential election. As for which side he's on, he elicits some chuckles from Dan with his candor...

I don't care, right or left... I bathe myself in nihilist indifference. My job is to forecast. It doesn't matter.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hello and welcome to the Stansberry Investor Hour. I'm your host, Dan Ferris. I'm also the editor of Extreme Value published by Stansberry Research.
0:12.0	And I'm Corey McLaughlin. I'm editor of the Stansberry Digest. This week, Dan talks with Marco Pappich, chief strategist at Clock Tower Group.
0:20.0	And for our opening rant,
0:21.8	we'll talk about some of the insights and ideas we heard at the annual Stansbury Conference in
0:26.5	Boston last week. No mailbag, but remember, you can email us at Feedback at InvestorHour.com
0:32.4	or call our listener feedback line 800-381-2357 and tell us what's on your mind.
0:39.0	That and more right now on the Stansberry Investor Hour.
0:46.9	All right. How you doing? Good, Dan. How you doing?
0:50.7	Very well. I'm tired, though. It's been an eventful three days here. A very busy three
0:56.7	days here in Boston. Just, I think I've been on stage 15 times. Yeah, you've been on stage a lot.
1:03.1	Yeah. I haven't been on stage at all. So I should be fresher, but I've been writing. So, well, yeah.
1:07.8	I mean, you do, like I do 10 times more on stage stuff you write 10 times more words
1:12.8	every week so um you know the two of us have a lot to do here um and let's face it you have to be
1:18.7	you basically have to watch every presentation don't you yes watch or at least listen to i've been
1:24.4	bopping up between my room writing and listening listening to you guys and our guests. So,
1:30.8	yeah. So I didn't get to see a whole lot of them because of having to do other things. I know that of
1:38.2	the speakers I saw, I definitely have a favorite. Do you definitely have a favorite? I do. Yeah should we let's let's do the big reveal at
1:46.9	the same time that's right yeah you first i like the colonel uh last night i don't know if you heard
1:53.7	caught him um i only caught a little bit of it but the gist was something like you know putin's a jerk
1:59.9	and russia is not as powerful as people make them out to be.
2:04.2	And so, you know, this war is probably not going to go his way.
2:09.8	Basically.
	...

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