'It's a Big Macro Moment'

Stansberry Investor Hour

Stansberry Research

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4.4 • 677 Ratings

🗓️ 24 October 2022

⏱️ 68 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

We're excited to have a brand-new guest for this week's Stansberry Investor Hour episode. And Dan has long admired him for his keen macroeconomic insights...

David Cervantes, the founder of New York's Pine Brook Capital Management, joins us today. Before establishing his firm in 2015, David already had roughly two decades of experience in the financial industry with Wall Street heavyweights like Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, UBS, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley.

Given the carnage in the markets, an uptick in inflation and volatility, and sky-high mortgage rates, Dan says, "We're on another planet versus a year ago." It's a big moment for macroeconomics... and that's exactly why Dan brought David on this week. He shares his expertise in understanding and explaining large-scale economic factors and gives his take on what's next for the markets.

David also covers the debate between a cyclical versus secular bear market, the Federal Reserve's No. 1 fear, and whether he's in the soft-landing camp. As for his take on the future, it's one heavily colored by the Fed's true nature...

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hello and welcome to the Stansberry Investor Hour. I'm your host, Dan Ferris. I'm also the editor of Extreme Value published by Stansberry Research.
0:13.3	And I'm Corey McLaughlin. I'm the editor of the Stansberry Digest. This week, Dan talks with David Servantes, founder of Pinebrook Capital Management.
0:21.1	And for our opening rant this week, I'm going to correct a mistake I made.
0:24.4	We're going to talk a little bit about Kathy Wood.
0:26.8	We're also going to talk about all the warnings I've been giving people for the past year or two.
0:31.3	And we'll finish up with a little tidbit about the situation in the UK.
0:35.0	No mailbag this week, but remember, you can email us at feedback at investor hour.com or call
0:41.3	our listener feedback line 800381-2357.
0:45.3	Tell us what's on your mind.
0:46.3	That and more right now on the Stansberry Investor Hour.
0:57.0	Okay. hour. Okay, Corey, so you have to indulge me here.
1:00.0	I need to fix a mistake.
1:03.0	It was in a recent Stansberry Digest, and Dick, I misinterpreted the prospectus of the new
1:09.0	ARC venture fund from the people at ARC invest run by
1:13.2	the famous Kathy Wood. And I said that you couldn't get all your money out. Most ARC invest funds
1:20.6	are just ETFs, right? So this ARC venture thing is a totally different animal. It's called an
1:25.3	interval fund and you can only get your money out once a quarter.
1:28.9	And I misread the prospectus and thought that there was an individual limit that you could only get
1:33.9	5% of your money out each quarter. But it's 5% of the total. And as long as everyone in the fund
1:39.7	doesn't want to head for the exits, you can get 100%. Probably most times. So, you know, mea culpa, made a mistake.
1:47.0	You can probably get 100% of your money as long as everyone isn't headed for the exits.
1:51.1	So I got that wrong. But I have to tell you, the more I thought about this, the more I thought,
	...

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