Reality, Probability, and Perception | Frankly #29
The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens
Nate Hagens
4.8 • 554 Ratings
🗓️ 14 April 2023
⏱️ 23 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Recorded April 10, 2023
Description
In this Frankly, Nate explains how he views the future from a probability perspective - a tool frequently used in industries such as finance, retirement planning, and by e.g. gamblers. While there will be only one eventual outcome, the possible paths to that future fall in a distribution, with some results much more likely than others. We can shift these results with our actions in the present. However, no one person can know this distribution perfectly, only the distribution shaped by their own bias, knowledge, and perspective. How might we use a probabilistic approach to better understand what's possible - and even to better relate to others? By thinking of the future as a spectrum, can we avoid falling into traps of certainty and complacency that inevitably lead to inaction? While there are some outcomes that are impossible, there are still many within our power to steer towards during a Simplification.
To watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/uWn2svl6aBU
For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/29-reality-probability-and-perception
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Greetings. Today I'm going to talk about probability, uncertainty, and perception. |
| 0:08.0 | This is how I think about the world, and I've thought about this frankly topic for a while. |
| 0:14.0 | This is going to be graph heavy. All of the graphs in this presentation are conceptual except for the nuclear war impact on climate and the IPCC climate projections. |
| 0:28.3 | If you're like me, imagine you being in a room with 20 or 30 of your friends, your family, your neighbors, and asking them a question, what do they think the temperature |
| 0:38.9 | relative to pre-industrial will be in the year 2100? What will the size of the global human |
| 0:44.4 | economy be in the year 2100? How many of the current 6,500 species of mammals will still exist |
| 0:52.7 | in the year 2100? Probably there will be an extremely wide variety of responses, even with people in your family |
| 1:04.0 | and your friends. |
| 1:05.0 | Let's start with yourself. |
| 1:07.0 | What does your city look like in the year 2050 or 2100? What is the temperature and the environmental future going to be in the deep future? |
| 1:19.6 | All of us have discrete views on this, ranging from a very specific thing to, I have no idea, I just want to pay this month's |
| 1:29.3 | bills. |
| 1:30.3 | But the point is there will be a reality for your city, for your region, for the planet in the future. |
| 1:39.3 | And when you think about it, you might think that there's a single point, but in reality, you are |
| 1:45.0 | imagining a distribution of futures and just voicing the single point. So instead of confusing |
| 1:52.6 | with climate or GDP or animal populations, let's start with an easy example. Who was in this year's Super Bowl in the United States and who was |
| 2:05.7 | their opponent? If I had asked you that one year ago, how would you have thought about this |
| 2:10.8 | question? Well, there's 32 teams in the NFL, 16 in each division. So 16 times 16 is 256 possible outcomes. If you knew nothing about football at all, |
| 2:24.6 | which probably many people listening to this podcast don't, you would think all 32 teams and all |
| 2:31.5 | possible matchups were equal chance. So each point on this white line would be one |
| 2:36.7 | 256th chance of being in the Super Bowl. But not all teams and scores have equal chances. |
| 2:44.9 | The distribution of 32 teams and likely matchups creates kind of a possibility of outcomes with the best teams before the season, |
... |
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