Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing.

Join Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching.

Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson work for Ritholz Wealth Management.

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Welcome to a new episode of Rekindled with Michael and Ben. Today's show we will be talking about the book Super Forecasting by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner.

For those who are unaware, Philip Tetlock is a professor who's made a career out of studying

experts basically.

His first big book was called expert political judgment.

I think it came out in 2006-ish and he ran these

forecasting tournaments from 1984 to 2003 with almost like 300 experts in a variety of fields including

like government officials, economists, professionals. almost like

government officials, economists, professors, journalists, investors,

and this was the thing that put him on the map.

And he looked at almost 30,000 predictions about the future and they basically

found these expert forecasters were right pretty much less than the flip of a coin.

So this was one of those that Dart throwing monkey could do better than a group of experts type of deal.

So this kind of put him on the map.

Oh, wait a minute. Literally, the dart throwing monkeys came from his research.

They called his researchers the Darth

the Darth on monkeys. Oh that's where the term came from? That's on page 4.

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