Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis.

Good afternoon. Today is Wednesday, March 4th, and I'm your host, Kim Con. Our top story so far,

Fed chief to be Kevin Warsh's job is getting tougher by the day. The White House may want lower Fed

funds rates, but the bond market is signaling rising inflation worries after the attacks on Iran

and a surge in oil prices. President Trump has said the conflict could last four to five weeks.

That leaves a couple of months for things to normalize before Warsh's first meeting of the

FOMC, though Paulymarket odds currently predict the cessation of hostilities by the end of June.

Fed Fund's futures now show a 60% chance rates stay unchanged after Warsh's inaugural meeting,

up from 54% a week ago and 42% a month ago.

Two quarter point cuts are still priced in by year end,

though the odds of dip to around 60%.

Minneapolis's Fred President Neil Kashkari said it's too soon to know what impact a war with Iran might have on inflation or how long any effects could last.

Coming into this moment, I was feeling pretty good, he said.

I felt like policy was in a pretty good place.

On the economic front, the ISM Services Index jumped to 56.1 in February from 53.8 in January,

beating the 53.5 consensus. It's the highest level in more than three years and marks the

20th straight month of expansion. Economists at Wells Fargo say some service sector firms

are adding headcount in anticipation

of stronger activity.

And while higher prices remain at burden, the ISM data suggests that cost pressures aren't

getting materially worse.

Their bottom line, service sector conditions are improving as businesses navigate steep uncertainty.

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