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Hidden Forces

Raoul Pal | The Fourth Turning: Generational Theory and the Future of Global Money

Hidden Forces

Demetri Kofinas

Business, Government

4.81.6K Ratings

🗓️ 29 July 2019

⏱️ 63 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In Episode 96 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with investor and co-founder of Real Vision, Raoul Pal about the future of global money in a multi-polar world, including a discussion about Bitcoin, Libra, debt, demographics, and much more.

The inspiration for this conversation derives from a theme captured in William Strauss and Neil Howe's Generational Theory, also known as the Fourth Turning, where the authors describe a four-stage cycle of social moods associated with recurring generational archetypes, which they call "turnings." These include: "The High", "The Awakening", "The Unraveling," and "The Crisis." The question we explore in this conversation is: "are we at the fourth turning, and if so, what does this mean for the type of change we can expect to see in the coming decades?" 

All of this leads to a discussion about digital currency in a multi-polar world where the power of governments to maintain the global order is diminished and where corporations and the private sector may gain an opening to provide alternative forms of money in support of global trade and commerce. Where does bitcoin fit in this world? What about alternative protocols and currencies? Will governments even allow them? Can they stop them or will they welcome them and does this point the way towards a path that will lead inexorably towards truly global money?

As always, subscribers to our Hidden Forces Patreon page can access the overtime to this week's episode, which includes a continuation of our conversation about digital currencies, but also a discussion about central bank policy at the Fed, the ECB, and the BOJ, as well as a discussion about economic indicators and what Raoul relies on most for his own projections about where we are in the business cycle.

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Today's episode of Hidden Forces is made possible by listeners like you.

0:04.6

For more information about this week's episode or for easy access to related programming,

0:09.7

visit our website at hidden ForcesO. and subscribe to our free email list.

0:16.0

If you listen to the show on your Apple Podcast app,

0:19.0

remember, you can give us a review.

0:21.0

Each review helps more people find the show and join our amazing community.

0:26.6

And with that, please enjoy this week's episode.

0:30.1

What's up everybody? I'm Demedricofinus and you're listening to Hidden Forces where each

0:36.7

week I speak with experts in the fields of technology, science, finance, and culture to help you gain the tools to better navigate an increasingly

0:46.8

complex world so that you're less surprised by tomorrow and better able to predict what happens next.

0:53.0

My guest this week is Raoul Paul, a former Global Macro Fund Manager and a co-founder of Real Vision,

1:01.0

a financial media company that offers in-depth video interviews

1:05.8

and research publications from some of the world's most thoughtful investors.

1:10.8

Raoul talks, writes, and tweets about issues affecting global markets, currencies, trade,

1:17.1

politics, and the business cycle.

1:19.7

But most of this conversation deals with a theme captured in William Strauss and Neil Howe's

1:25.6

generational theory, also known as the fourth turning, where the authors describe a four-stage

1:31.7

cycle of social moods associated with recurring

1:35.6

generational art types, which they call turnings. These include the high, the awakening,

1:42.0

the unraveling, and the crisis.

1:44.6

The question we explore in this conversation is, are we at the fourth turning?

1:50.5

And if so, what does that mean for the type of change we can expect to see in the coming

...

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