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Let's do this. I want to provide some value here. You guys are going to be hanging out, maybe watching Derby Day coverage. Maybe you just care about the Derby.

Okay. If you're going to handicap the Kentucky Derby, here's how to do it. And it a little bit is what we just said, go to Race 12, Churchill Downs, 551 Post.

Let's do the business. And you have 20 horses. Start like this. Who can't win this race? You have to look at this and make a case of art.

Am I willing to be beaten by this horse? I just don't believe this horse can win this race and you're going to go through here and I think you'll find a couple of these to be alright.

This is I'm not going to lose to this horse. And you toss them right out. Now, there are plenty of times I'll toss a horse. You get beat by it. It teaches you for the next time. And you go, alright, where did I mess up?

I threw that horse out. Why didn't I believe in it? And while that horse just beat me. Why? How could I have done better there? I think when you go into the Derby, you can toss probably five horses right off the rip.

Get you into a 15 horse field. Now, hey, that's no great shakes. That's still a bitch to handicap, but don't approach it as 20, knock it down to 15 or 13, but that's what's fascinating about this year's addition.

Other years in the Derby, I can I could knock that fucking race down. I could be down to seven or eight horses. Not this year.

Guys, this race really is wide open. And I understand if if forte the favorite or tapatrice just goes out, wins it, people will go, well, that was easy.

I just don't think it looks that way on paper. I don't think they dominate the field. I don't think their numbers tower over anybody. This is a very wide open field. And I think part of it is the wide open year in the three year old division.

There is no super horse. I mean, forte for all of his accolades, two year old champion undefeated at three. His numbers haven't gotten any better.

He's not turned into a different horse. He's primarily running the same way he ran as a two year old. It's damn good horse, but you know what else I don't like. I'll tell you this.

Another part of my handicapping when I see a horse is one three or more races in a row. I'm out. It is there's a million ways to lose a horse race. And there's only one way to win it.

And with forte, he has done absolutely nothing wrong, but his numbers aren't getting better.

He should have got beat in the Florida Derby. We covered that. If mage actually left the gate. He loses that race. I understand he passed him in the last hundred yards.

He's a great horse one five in a row. But I think there's some knocks here on forte. And again, I don't want to take a horse that may be by post time is two to one in a 20 horse field. And there's a million ways to lose. And if you want to know some of those ways, listen to the post draw. It's free.

It should be on your time feed. Click it. A little little toilet listening if you want. So knock the field down a little bit and then ask yourself.

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