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Naval

Probability Is Subjective

Naval

Naval Ravikant

Business, Technology

4.82.4K Ratings

🗓️ 16 April 2021

⏱️ 2 minutes

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Transcript http://nav.al/probability

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0:00.0

Does probability actually exist in the physical universe or is it a function of our ignorance?

0:07.2

If I'm rolling a dice, I don't know which way it's going to land.

0:09.9

So therefore, I put in a probability.

0:11.6

But does that mean that there's an actual probabilistic,

0:14.2

unknowable thing in the universe?

0:15.6

Is the universe flipping a coin somewhere or is it always deterministic?

0:19.7

All probability is actually subjective.

0:23.6

Uncertainty and randomness are subjective.

0:26.8

If you don't know what the outcome's going to be, so you roll a dice,

0:29.6

that's because you individually do not know.

0:33.3

It's not because there is uncertainty there deeply in the universe.

0:37.4

What we know about quantum theory is that all physically possible things occur.

0:43.4

This leads to the concept of the multiverse.

0:45.9

And rather than refute all of the failed ways of trying to understand quantum theory,

0:51.0

we're just going to take seriously what the equations of quantum theory say.

0:54.8

What we are compelled to think about quantum theory given the experiment is that

0:59.4

every single possible thing that can happen does happen.

1:03.3

This means that there is no inherent uncertainty in the universe,

1:07.2

because everything that can happen actually will happen.

1:10.2

It's not like some things will happen and won't happen.

1:12.7

Everything happens.

1:13.6

Now you occupy a single universe.

...

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