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Explain It to Me

Primary mooples

Explain It to Me

Vox Media Podcast Network

Politics, Society & Culture, Education, News

4.48K Ratings

🗓️ 17 December 2019

⏱️ 42 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Dara, Jane, and Matt on America's odd system of choosing presidential nominees. What to read: "There is no single “black vote.” There are many." by P.R. Lockhart, Vox "The extremely small number of votes it takes to win the Iowa caucuses, explained" by Tara Golshan and Ella Nilson, Vox Latest polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.com White paper Hosts: Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias), Senior correspondent, Vox Dara Lind (@DLind), Immigration reporter, ProPublica Jane Coaston (@cjane87), Senior politics reporter, Vox More to explore: Subscribe to Impeachment, Explained on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Overcast, Pocket Casts, or your favorite podcast app to get stay updated on this story every week. About Vox Vox is a news network that helps you cut through the noise and understand what's really driving the events in the headlines. Follow Us: Vox.com Facebook group: The Weeds **COME SEE THE WEEDS LIVE ON FRI., DECEMBER 18TH IN WASHINGTON D.C. (TICKETS HERE)** Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

All right, so we do this. Let's do it.

0:04.2

[♪ OUTRO MUSIC PLAYING [♪

0:17.0

Hello, welcome to another episode of the Weets on the Box Media Podcast Network.

0:21.0

I'm Matthew Glacias here with Jane Kostin, Pro Publicas, Darryl Lind.

0:24.7

We are on the verge of Christmas, New Years, and then the glorious end of the holiday season,

0:33.1

the Iowa caucuses. And wanted to talk, I think not so much exactly about the state of the race

0:39.8

as it currently stands, but about the splendor of deciding to choose presidential nominees in this

0:48.1

way because it's a little odd. I mean, if you look at national polls, Joe Biden has just like a big

0:55.5

lead. You know, it's obvious. If the primary were a week from today, like Joe Biden would win.

1:02.9

But the primary isn't a week from today, instead like a month from today, there's going to be

1:07.8

caucuses in Iowa. And if you look at the Iowa caucus polling, it's quite close. And then if you

1:13.4

ask the like fancy stat modellers, they think that whoever wins in Iowa will likely get a big bump

1:20.0

in the polls. The New Hampshire polling is not quite as close as Iowa, but it's also pretty close.

1:25.6

So if Biden, if Buttigieg, if Sanders, if Warren wins Iowa, they would probably also be favored in

1:31.8

New Hampshire, which gives you a further bump. And then you get into the complexities of Nevada and

1:37.0

South Carolina. And then when people talk about South Carolina, they're like, oh, that's totally

1:41.0

different because of black people. Because black people live there, right? And right. And then

1:45.3

that's the thing is like fundamentally the reason it's so much closer in Iowa than nationwide

1:52.3

is that Biden has a huge lead with African Americans. And there are no black people in Iowa.

1:58.4

And this doesn't strike me. I'm not like a Joe Biden stan, but like in principle, that doesn't

2:05.9

seem like a good reason for the race to be closed. In general, it strikes me that presidential

2:11.0

primaries are one of those things where if you're paying attention to the infrastructure, like that's

...

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