Primary mooples
Explain It to Me
Vox Media Podcast Network
4.4 • 8K Ratings
🗓️ 17 December 2019
⏱️ 42 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | All right, so we do this. Let's do it. |
| 0:04.2 | [♪ OUTRO MUSIC PLAYING [♪ |
| 0:17.0 | Hello, welcome to another episode of the Weets on the Box Media Podcast Network. |
| 0:21.0 | I'm Matthew Glacias here with Jane Kostin, Pro Publicas, Darryl Lind. |
| 0:24.7 | We are on the verge of Christmas, New Years, and then the glorious end of the holiday season, |
| 0:33.1 | the Iowa caucuses. And wanted to talk, I think not so much exactly about the state of the race |
| 0:39.8 | as it currently stands, but about the splendor of deciding to choose presidential nominees in this |
| 0:48.1 | way because it's a little odd. I mean, if you look at national polls, Joe Biden has just like a big |
| 0:55.5 | lead. You know, it's obvious. If the primary were a week from today, like Joe Biden would win. |
| 1:02.9 | But the primary isn't a week from today, instead like a month from today, there's going to be |
| 1:07.8 | caucuses in Iowa. And if you look at the Iowa caucus polling, it's quite close. And then if you |
| 1:13.4 | ask the like fancy stat modellers, they think that whoever wins in Iowa will likely get a big bump |
| 1:20.0 | in the polls. The New Hampshire polling is not quite as close as Iowa, but it's also pretty close. |
| 1:25.6 | So if Biden, if Buttigieg, if Sanders, if Warren wins Iowa, they would probably also be favored in |
| 1:31.8 | New Hampshire, which gives you a further bump. And then you get into the complexities of Nevada and |
| 1:37.0 | South Carolina. And then when people talk about South Carolina, they're like, oh, that's totally |
| 1:41.0 | different because of black people. Because black people live there, right? And right. And then |
| 1:45.3 | that's the thing is like fundamentally the reason it's so much closer in Iowa than nationwide |
| 1:52.3 | is that Biden has a huge lead with African Americans. And there are no black people in Iowa. |
| 1:58.4 | And this doesn't strike me. I'm not like a Joe Biden stan, but like in principle, that doesn't |
| 2:05.9 | seem like a good reason for the race to be closed. In general, it strikes me that presidential |
| 2:11.0 | primaries are one of those things where if you're paying attention to the infrastructure, like that's |
... |
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