Pricing the Future (with Kalshi CEO)

a16z crypto show

Andreessen Horowitz

Distributed Computing, Blockchain, Art, Innovation, Web 3, Technology, Culture, Internet, Public Goods, Business, Decentralization, Open Source, Creator Economy, Music, Gaming, Cypherpunk, Visual Arts, Crypto, Arts, Web 3.0, Entertainment, Computing, Computer Science, Blockchains, Entrepreneurship, Ownership, Web3, Cryptography

4.4 • 66 Ratings

🗓️ 19 November 2025

⏱️ 24 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Prediction markets are blurring the line between finance and forecasting. Host Robert Hackett talks with Kalshi Cofounder and CEO Tarek Mansour about how this innovation is creating a new way to price the future.

Transcript

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0:00.0	And people have tried this before.
0:01.0	In trade.
0:02.0	It was in trade.
0:03.0	Auger.
0:04.0	It's an idea that's been around for a while.
0:06.0	Like historical patterns, I think people really drastically overweigh historical patterns.
0:10.0	The way that these things happen is actually an anti-pattern usually.
0:12.0	Like the biggest outcomes in companies always have a weird thing that has happened for, as a first, that it hadn't happened before.
0:31.1	Welcome to Web 3 with A16Z Crypto.
0:32.9	I'm Robert Hackett, your host.
0:37.5	This episode kicks off a special series recorded live at our recent Founders Summit,
0:42.0	featuring conversations with founders building at the frontier of technology.
0:46.7	First up is Tariq Mansour, co-founder and CEO of Kalshi,
0:50.1	a prediction market where people can trade on real-world events.
0:56.7	We talk about how Kalshi is redefining finance, its plans for crypto, and why regulation has been a key to its success.
0:59.5	Here's my conversation with Tarek.
1:01.4	Tark, thank you so much for being here.
1:02.7	Thanks for having me.
1:03.7	I'm excited.
1:04.7	All right.
1:05.7	So I'd like to start with what is the biggest misconception that people have about the problem
1:09.9	you're trying to solve?
	...

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