This is John Batchel, conversation with my good colleague by Michael Bernstam in the Hoover Institution about the shortfall in revenue for the Russian budget gets worse going forward. Right now, it's not positive. What do they have? I ask Michael, can't they borrow? That's what we do. No, they cannot. And so what's left is liquid and gold, not much. Bottom of the barrel.

Here, Michael, to explain. Maybe through 25, although they've already lost money in 25. Maybe into 26, maybe not.

And if the price of oil continues to decline towards what is expected in the 40s, and they must discount to sell the oil to China and India, they're only customers. It gets worse. Here's Michael.

They have very limited ability to borrow because they've already borrowed in the past and so they're

largely relying on the sovereign wealth fund and they still have liquid part which is

renminbi and gold that's the only thing is left there and mean being gold and the liquid part

is about 40 billion dollars so this will cover their budget deficit in 25 and maybe in early 26.

After that, it's very hard for them.

But if the oil prices are going down, then their budget revenues will be declining.

Already, they've lost just in 2025, annualized,

for the entire 25 from the first half of the year data,

they've already lost about $35 billion from oil and gas revenues for the budget.