Hello and welcome to another episode of Real Politics. I am your host, Firasmodad, and I'm joined today by Dan. And we're going to be talking a little bit about the economic impact of the war.

I know you've done some great work about this.

Shall we start with a brief recap as to where we are?

Yes, please. I'd like the update as well.

Yes.

Okay.

So the first thing that I want us to look at is the Iranian rate of missile fire and drone

fire.

And it seems to have stabilized.

They seem to be able to fire as many missiles as they want to.

They've moved from the very high intensity phase in the first couple of days of the

war to a sort of sustained engagement rate. And so you see some days it drops to 50, other days it

goes to 63, but this is the moving three-day average. And you see some stability there. You know,

they're doing enough to keep the United States busy

and to deplete missile interceptors and so on. Can I ask a question on behalf of the

audience on that one? Yes. I mean, I appreciate that it's quite high at the beginning.

And presumably that's because you have those targets that you really want to hit on day one.

And then everything else is by definition a lower tier target because otherwise you would have hit it on day one.

Yes.

But is the rate that they're doing now, presumably the rate that they think they can sustain over the long term,

which could be many, many months, owing to the fact that they got an open supply line to Russia and Kazakhstan,

and therefore they feel confident that they can just maintain this consistently.

...