4.6 • 2.7K Ratings
🗓️ 9 May 2025
⏱️ 2 minutes
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0:00.0 | This is John Batchel, asking colleague Chris Regal of Scholar.com, when the Chinese slowdown started, when did they peak? |
0:10.1 | They're all export all the time manufacturing. |
0:13.8 | It's leading into disorder long before the tariff talk of 2025. |
0:19.1 | And what is the driver? |
0:20.5 | Chris has several versions of the answer. |
0:23.9 | They point to not just the property problem in China, but the American slowdown here |
0:30.1 | in the age of stimulus packages out of Washington that started with a T trillion. |
0:37.0 | Here's Chris Regal on the slowdown in China and its |
0:40.1 | connection to the slowdown in the U.S. Much more of this tonight. |
0:45.3 | John's a great question. So China faces two problems. One is the domestic property problem, |
0:50.3 | and that started two and a half three years ago. It got noticeably worse last year, |
0:56.1 | as liquidity in China continued to dry up. The other part of the story is the U.S. domestic |
1:02.3 | consumer slowdown, which really started earlier in 2024. Government spending kind of covered |
1:09.6 | that or hid that from GDP results, but it's been pretty |
1:13.6 | well known within the business circles and consumer-facing retail that the consumer had |
1:18.5 | materially slowed, and that's further decelerated into 2025. |
1:23.4 | So China can work to fix their property problem, not going to be easy, but it's solvable, but they cannot force the American consumer to buy more. |
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