Hello and welcome to Broanomics.

Now, this episode I thought I might call Breaking Points,

which I think is an excellent name for a podcast, actually.

I don't know if anyone's got that already.

But what I wanted to do is I'm going to go on Faraz's channel soon, because he came on mine, and I talked about, you know, what are the sort of breaking conditions in the whole of the situation from a geopolitical point of view on the various actors in it, and that's going to be, well, you should have seen that episode by now. And he said, well, why don't you go in mind and talk about the economic side of things as well? So I've been putting together some notes. And I ended up getting quite

into it. So I managed to find 12 numbers that I think are pretty crucial to the world

operating in a sort of functional way. And it's, well, I'll go, I'll go through it. But what

it's all dependent on is that, you see, systems such as that we are in, they don't fail at extremes. You can't just say, okay, well, there's a, you know, there's a threshold and you get beyond that. And you'll see that all the time on Twitter. You'll say, you know, if, if rates if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's sort of gradual stress leading to sort of instability,

then we can sort of see, well, okay, well, that's going to lead then to constraints and forced actions and cascades.

Because you have to remember, right, modern economies, they're not really free systems in the way that they might promote themselves

as. They are basically range bound control systems. And they're built on a whole number of

assumptions about, you know, cost of capital being within certain bounds and energy availability

being a good thing and, you know, current stability and, you know, social tolerance. We

normally that's fraying at the edges. But really, most actors within this system, they're not,

they're not really trying to, well, they would like to optimise, but what they're really trying

to do is manage the set of constraints that they've got to work with. So government debt has got to be enrolled.

We talked about that law on Broeconomics.

Central banks have to manage expectations.

Not really the reality, but expectations, it matters more.

Corporate price, you know, around benchmarks that they don't control, you know, and households react late,

unfortunately, in all of this.

So essentially, what I'm saying is stability is an illusion.

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