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Goldman Sachs Exchanges

President Trump, Year Two: What's Next on the Agenda?

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.41K Ratings

🗓️ 25 January 2018

⏱️ 30 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Now over the hurdle of tax reform, the question becomes which political priorities the Trump Administration will tackle next. Alec Phillips, chief US political economist for Goldman Sachs Research, says the potential for a mid-term election shakeup is likely to delay legislative progress on infrastructure and compromise on immigration, but he does expect movement on financial deregulation this year. Trade tensions with China could also re-heat as the Administration responds to the results of several key international trade investigations. This podcast was recorded on January 22, 2018. All price references and market forecasts correspond to the date of this recording. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity.

Transcript

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0:00.0

This is a

0:02.0

is exchanges at Goldman Sachs where we discuss developments currently shaping markets, industries,

0:14.0

and the global economy. I'm Jake Stewart, Global Head of Corporate Communications here at the firm.

0:19.0

The first few days of the Trump administration's second year in office have been eventful with the government

0:24.1

shutdown.

0:25.1

Now that Washington is back to work, what's next?

0:28.2

From trade to infrastructure, health care, to immigration, and more, there's a lot to talk about.

0:33.2

And for that, we're joined by Alec Phillips, chief US political

0:36.6

economist for Goldman Sachs research.

0:38.8

Alec, welcome back to the program.

0:41.2

Thank you.

0:42.3

So you were on this podcast in March of last year and you were talking about what the

0:46.9

Trump administration would try to accomplish during its first year, pass a tax bill, repeal

0:51.4

the Affordable Care Act, the focus on immigration.

0:55.3

What was most consistent and what surprised you with the legislation that's resulted since

1:00.8

we spoke last? So I think the thing that was most consistent was that we did think coming into 2017 that the two most important priorities would be ACA, so health care, and then tax reform.

1:16.1

And that you'd have these other things kind of after that, that would be sort of second-tier

1:19.7

priorities infrastructure, which definitely turns out to have been, it seems like a second-tier priority,

1:26.0

some of the other smaller pieces of legislation around regulation and so on.

1:30.7

What was not surprising is that they managed to get something done on both of those things.

1:35.6

Clearly on tax, they got a lot done.

1:38.0

And you were bullish last year on their prospects for doing that pretty much consistently throughout the year and at some point it

...

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