Hello, SFIA audio listeners. In this month's Nebula exclusive, big alien theory,

we're asked at the reason alien civilizations might be rare is because most aliens are huge.

To hear it and every episode early and ad-free, plus hours of bonus content,

check out go.nebula.tv slash Isaac Arthur and use my code, Isaac Arthur.

What does the future hold? A brighter dawn or the end of the line? Join us today, and together we appear

into the unknown. One of the most common end-of-the-year things to do is make predictions about the future.

Of course, that's basically what we do on this show every episode.

That's why it's called science and futurism.

So it's been my custom to shake things up a bit with end-of-the-year predictions,

including episodes on why trying to predict the future is nigh impossible.

So we will have some predictions, even some

fairly specific and short-term ones, but we are as much going to be talking about prediction

and how to usefully do it, and where it can be deceptive or counterproductive, even when

based on solid reasoning. In this way, you should finish this episode not just with my predictions,

but with the ability

to assess those of others more critically, and make your own predictions more reliable.

And of course, this being SFAIA, and it being the darkest time of the year, we'll try to

make the case for why a bright future is possible, likely, and probably within your personal grasp. We'll be doing that

with logic and data, not platitudes, and that's going to take a little bit of time. So grab

yourself a drink and a snack, and let's begin. Now, some things are reasonably predictable.

We know this intuitively, and it's how we can do weather

forecasts or make decent guesses about who will succeed at something.

...