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The Indicator from Planet Money

Prediction markets are threatening national security. Who's gonna fix it?

The Indicator from Planet Money

NPR

Business

4.79.5K Ratings

🗓️ 12 May 2026

⏱️ 9 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

It’s the Wild West of online betting. Prediction markets have been plagued by insider trading allegations, ethical questions and even national security concerns. Today on the show, what are sites like Polymarket doing to self-police, and what other regulations might be necessary? We talk to one U.S. senator with some ideas.

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Related: 

Is anyone gonna do anything about these Iran War trades?  
Do prediction market bettors make anything better?  
Polymarket bots, lithium found: lots!, marathon shoe thoughts  

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Transcript

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0:17.1

Sign up now. We want your feedback. NPR.org slash indicator newsletter.

0:24.4

NPR.

0:25.0

NPR.

0:34.7

Prediction markets have an insider trading problem.

0:38.2

Yeah, I remember that American Special Forces soldier who was just arrested for allegedly

0:43.2

betting on the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolaus Maduro, a mission he was apparently

0:48.9

a part of.

0:49.6

I can't believe the story, but that is the world we're in these days.

0:54.2

It's mind-boggling.

0:55.4

Could have been easy money.

0:56.5

Still, prediction markets are economically useful.

0:59.4

They can provide real-time sentiment on things like inflation or the possibility of a recession.

1:04.6

And as we know from the last presidential election, they're often more accurate than political polls.

1:11.4

Good, bad, or neutral, though, these markets create new problems for regulators.

1:17.6

This is the indicator from Planet Money. I'm Darren Woods.

1:20.7

And I'm Ricky Mulvey. Today on the show, we're looking into how these markets can be regulated.

1:25.7

We'll see how poly Market is fighting insider trading,

...

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