Prediction markets are making a 150-year comeback

Throughline

NPR

Society & Culture, Documentary, History

4.6 • 16.4K Ratings

🗓️ 21 May 2026

⏱️ 52 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Prediction market sites allow users to put money on everything from the war in Iran to the winner of the Super Bowl. But where did these markets come from? And what can that history tell us about where they might be going? Today on the show, how betting on popes and presidents long ago planted a seed for a “terrorism market” in the early 2000s, and how those early prediction markets shaped the industry that has taken hold today.

Guests:

Koleman Strumpf, economics professor at Wake Forest University

Paul Rhode, economic historian at the University of Michigan.

Robin Hanson, Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University and systems architect for the Policy Analysis Market

Robert Forsythe, Professor of Finance at Wayne State University and co-founder of the Iowa Political Stock Market

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Transcript

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0:00.0	Hey everyone. Before we get into this week's episode, I want to share that Ramtin is no longer with the show.
0:08.0	I'm thankful for all his hard work and dedication over the years, from creating the show with me to his contributions to countless episodes since.
0:17.3	His storytelling, creative vision, and music were invaluable.
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0:26.4	The team and I will be making the show you know with the same care and curiosity.
0:31.2	Thank you for listening.
0:32.8	Your support means so much.
0:35.3	And now, on to the show.
0:41.0	$400,000.
0:42.5	Hundreds of thousand. Half a million dollars.
0:44.8	$400,000 in profits.
0:47.3	Half a million dollars. That's how much money someone made a couple months ago on a risky bet.
0:54.0	Will the U.S. strike Iran by Saturday, February 28, 2026?
0:59.8	The answer, of course, was yes.
1:03.0	United States and Israel are carrying out major attacks against Iran today.
1:07.0	Huge explosions rang out in the capital of Tehran.
1:10.1	Iran has retaliated by striking back at Israel and at U.S. military targets across the Gulf in several Arab states.
1:16.8	And if that person's bet was a lucky guess, it was very lucky.
1:21.0	Because the odds the U.S. was going to strike Iran that day, hovered between 7 and 26%.
1:26.9	And the better doubled down in the hours
1:29.4	before President Trump announced the strike.
1:31.9	Our objective is to defend the American people.
	...

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