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What A Day

Prediction Markets: All Bets Are War

What A Day

What A Day

News, Daily News

4.6 • 12.6K Ratings

🗓️ 10 April 2026

⏱️ 21 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

From the moment the U.S. and Israel launched strikes in Iran at the end of February, several people have been profiting from them because of extremely well-timed bets they made on the prediction market website Polymarket. In March, Polymarket barred trades based on, “stolen confidential information.” And yet people appear to still be making trades using insider information. Just this week, a group of newly created accounts bet correctly on the U.S. and Iran reaching a ceasefire on April 7th. Saahil Desai, senior editor at The Atlantic, joins the show to discuss how prediction markets are capitalizing on war.

And in headlines, the White House denies reports of a schism between the Trump administration and the Vatican, humanitarian groups say the ceasefire in Gaza is failing, and a new analysis finds out just how much Democrats are saying the f-word on social media.

Show Notes:

Transcript

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0:00.0

It's Friday, April 10th. I'm Jane Koston, and this is What Today, the show that would never buy Yerba Mote from President Donald Trump's youngest son.

0:11.4

That's despite news that Baron Trump is now one of five directors of a company that will soon be selling the caffeinated beverage to the people who buy anything else, a Trump would sell them.

0:29.8

Thank you. beverage to the people who buy anything else a Trump would sell them. On today's show, the White House denies reports of a schism between the Trump administration and the Vatican.

0:36.9

And Democrats are letting the F-bombs fly all over

0:39.6

Twitter. They swear it's a good idea. But let's start with the war in Iran and how some people are

0:45.9

making a lot of money betting on it. The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that the White

0:50.3

House has forbidden staffers from betting on the war and prediction markets, and for good

0:54.5

reason. From the moment, the US and Israel launched strikes in February, quite a few people

0:59.9

have been profiting from them. That's because they've been placing extremely well-timed

1:05.2

bets on their website, Polymarket, with some winning hundreds of thousands of dollars. Here's

1:10.3

France 24 back in March.

1:11.6

More than a dozen anonymous accounts placed bets predicting that the United States would strike Iran by Saturday the 28th of February.

1:19.6

Most of those wages were placed in the hours before the first bombs fell.

1:23.6

And many of the accounts have been created only days earlier.

1:33.6

Funnily enough, those extremely well-timed bets on action in Iran have been happening for a while now.

1:40.5

CNN reported on one trader making nearly $1 million since 2024 by accurately predicting events in the ongoing conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran.

1:45.9

And just this week, a group of newly created accounts bet correctly on the U.S. and Iran reaching a ceasefire on April 7th.

1:51.9

What are the odds? Polymarket and its main competitor, Kalshi, are massive businesses,

1:57.9

and they're both aware that insider trading is a massive problem. In February,

2:03.1

Israeli officials arrested multiple Israeli reservists and a civilian who were using classified

2:07.5

information to place bets on the country's military operations, using, you guessed it, polymarket.

2:14.0

So for more on how prediction markets are capitalizing on war, I spoke to Sahel Desai.

...

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