Predicting 2026: Will Ukraine finally get a peace deal?
FT News Briefing
Forhecz Topher
4.4 • 1.2K Ratings
🗓️ 30 December 2025
⏱️ 9 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
The FT’s Europe editor Ben Hall thought there would be a Ukraine peace deal in 2025. Despite lots of back and forth over ceasefire proposals, an agreement has yet to materialise. The negotiations reveal a lot about the relationship between the west and Russia. Can the countries come to an agreement in 2026?
Mentioned in this podcast:
Volodymyr Zelenskyy calls for 50-year US security guarantee for Ukraine
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Today’s FT News Briefing was hosted by Sonja Hutson, and produced by Victoria Craig and Marc Filippino. Our show was mixed by Kelly Garry. Additional help from Gavin Kallmann and David da Silva. The FT’s acting co-head of audio is Topher Forhecz. The show’s theme music is by Metaphor Music.
Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Good morning from the Financial Times. Today is Tuesday, December 30th. I'm Sonia Hudson, |
| 0:07.0 | and this is your FT News briefing. The U.S. has offered Ukraine a 15-year security guarantee |
| 0:14.7 | as part of a peace deal. But Keeve wants one that lasts as long as 50 years to deter Russia from invading in the future. |
| 0:23.2 | This is all according to statements from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy yesterday. |
| 0:28.0 | He met with U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday. |
| 0:31.4 | Now, what exactly does a security guarantee involve? |
| 0:35.3 | Well, according to Keev's proposal, it would mirror NATO's Article 5 commitment to mutual |
| 0:41.1 | defense. |
| 0:42.1 | An attack on one country is considered an attack on all. |
| 0:46.1 | But there's a big difference between 15 and 50 years. |
| 0:50.2 | So for now, a peace deal is still out of reach. |
| 0:53.9 | Which is not what the FTs Europe editor Ben Hall thought would happen in 2025. |
| 0:59.7 | At the end of last year, he predicted there would be an agreement. |
| 1:03.9 | Ben joins me now for the second installment of our series on predictions, where we talk about whether our colleagues were right about 2025, |
| 1:12.4 | and if they can venture a guess about 2026. Hi, Ben. Hello. |
| 1:17.9 | All right, so you thought there would be a peace deal in 2025. Why did you make that prediction? |
| 1:24.7 | Because I thought a forceful President Trump would be rational in the way that he |
| 1:32.2 | approached this peace deal and would, whilst trying to find some kind of compromise between |
| 1:38.5 | Kiev and Moscow, would have been prepared to put pressure on Moscow to bring it to the negotiating table properly |
| 1:47.1 | with a view to sort of essentially forcing it to make a compromise to end the war. But I was wrong. |
| 1:55.0 | Yeah. Well, forecasting is famously a dangerous game in this profession. What do you think went wrong? |
| 2:00.5 | Why was there no deal? |
... |
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