Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis.

Good afternoon. Today is Wednesday, March 18th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn. This is a special Fed edition of Wall Street Lunch.

A made what one economist calls a central banker's nightmare of inflation and labor market

risks. The Federal Reserve clearly thinks discretion is the better part of valor. In what one

analyst described as the least surprising decision ever, the Fed held rate steady at three

and a half to 3.75%. The policy statement was largely unchanged, aside from noting that

developments in the Middle East are uncertain.

That uncertainty extended to the new summary of economic projections, which still penciled

in one rate cut this year. In fact, Fed Chairman Powell described the new dot plot as a case

of Fed members just having to write something down, and given the limited view on the oil

shock, they'd have preferred to skip it altogether if they could.

The biggest shift in the projections was higher inflation in 2026, with both headline and core PCE seen at 2.7%, still well above the Fed's 2% target.

Basically, these projections assume no real impact from the war, presumably because it's too

early to tell what those effects will be,

economist Dario Perkins said. During the press conference, Powell acknowledged the balancing act,

saying it remains unclear whether inflation or labor market weakness poses the greater risk.

Away from monetary policy, Powell said he had no intention of leaving the Fed until the Justice Department investigation is well and truly over and would serve

as Chairman Pro Tem if Kevin Warsh's nomination is delayed. He added he hasn't decided to stay on

as a Fed governor once the matter is resolved. Further highlights, Powell said oil producers are

unlikely to boost output unless prices stay sharply elevated for an extended period. Most FOMC members do not

see a rate hike as the base case, but there will be no cut without further progress on inflation.

Fed Governor Stephen Myron kept his streak alive of dissenting at every meeting, calling for a quarter-point

...