Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast, where we cover the top news for investors every morning.

Good morning. Today is Thursday, June 19th, and I'm your host, Kim Khan, with a special Fed edition of Wall Street Breakfast on this Juneteenth market holiday.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell says the impact of tariffs is

coming as the FOMC continued its wait-and-see path on rates. As universally expected, on Wednesday,

the Fed kept rates at four and a quarter to four and a half percent, while the new dot plot

leaned further to stagflation. UBS chief economist Paul Donovan says, The uncertainty about trade taxes, fiscal policy,

and the reactions of U.S. companies and consumers, means, as Fed Chair Powell noted,

there can be very little certainty about the future path of interest rates.

At his press conference, Powell did reaffirm that the next move is probably lower,

saying it's more likely than not that the economy gets to a place

where easing is appropriate. But he also highlighted the FOMC's worries on the inflation side of the

mandate and the impact of tariffs on prices. All through the supply chain, people will be trying

not to be the ones who pick up the cost, but ultimately the cost of the tariff has to be paid,

he said, and some of it will fall on the end consumer.

We know that because that's what businesses say, that's what the data say from the past, so we know

that's coming, and we just want to see a little bit of that before we make judgments prematurely.

We have to be forward-looking, and the thing that every forecaster, every outside forecaster,

and the Fed is saying, is that we expect a meaningful

amount of inflation to arrive in the coming months, and we have to take that into account,

he said. I think if you look at what's happening here since March, you see a little slower

growth, a one-tenth pick-up in unemployment, and you see inflation moving up three-tenths, pal noted.

So that's what you see. You see the effects of tariffs. For the Fed as a whole,

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