Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.

What's going on, guys? It is Wednesday, October 29th, and today we are talking about the return of Polymarket to the United States. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit.ly.ly slash breakdown pod. Well, friends, Pollymarket is preparing to return to the U.S. as soon as the end of next month. Bloomberg reports that the company is taking steps to relaunch in the U.S. with a focus on sports betting according to sources familiar with the plans. The timing would allow their service to launch right as football heads into the postseason and basketball kicks up for the year.

It has been a wild few years for this company.

In the lead up to last year's election, Polymarket became a household name, providing a more

accurate pulse on voter sentiment than mainstream polling.

Shortly after the election, founder Shane Copland had his house rated by the FBI, seemingly

in connection to claims that Polymarket had somehow interfered with the election, founder Shane Copland, had his house rated by the FBI, seemingly in connection to claims

that Polymarket had somehow interfered with the election. More recently, Polymarket took on a $2 billion

investment from Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.

That investment valued Polymarket at $9 billion. This was all happening, meanwhile, while

Polymarket was still technically banned from servicing

U.S. users. In 2022, Polymarket settled a CFTC enforcement action, paying a $1.4 million fine and

agreeing not to operate in the United States. In the middle of last year, the federal court

limited the CFTC's jurisdiction overprediction markets, functionally making them legal for the

first time, and subject to similar rules as other derivatives platforms. Polymarket acquired a

derivative exchange for their license over the summer, while the CFTC formally withdrew

any remaining investigations. It seems that everything has fallen in Polymarkets' favor,

and the platform is almost ready to relaunch in their home market.

Relaunching as a sports betting platform is another interesting decision borne out by the way prediction markets have evolved over the past year. Traditionally, prediction markets have

been focused on non-sports events. Elections have always been a big driver of volume as well as

cultural events like the Oscars. There was a big assumption at the end of last year that

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