This is the Kaderie Daily Podcast for Friday, March 26, 2021.

I'm Caleb Brown.

Republicans again did better than expected in the 2020 election, so once again, we we have to ask how did pollsters get it so

wrong and as importantly what has to happen for them to get it right.

Emily Eekins directs polling at the Cato Institute, we talked about the theories of why the GOP vote was again predicted poorly.

So what do we understand now that we might not have known in December or January.

Right, so pollsters are still perplexed.

They don't know what happened, why the polls

underestimated Trump support in 2020 and 2016.

One thing to know is that it wasn't the polls didn't just

underestimate Trump support but Republican support across the board. So an example is

take Senator Susan Collins in Maine not a single the

so an example is take senator Susan Collins in Maine not a single public poll

in the month leading up to the election showed her even in a lead

and she won handily I think by 8 percentage points

so and she's a pretty moderate senator.

And so people were saying, what's going on?

Are people afraid to say that they're voting for moderate Susan Collins?

And so that led a lot of people to say, you know, we just don't know what's going on.

And so I wrote an article for 538 recently where I try to examine and explore what I think might be happening.

And I think that kind of the shortest way to put it is I think that a lot of Republicans in 2020 just stopped responding to surveys.

Not all Republicans, but a certain segment of Republicans particularly those who are more willing to vote for Donald Trump

...