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The Lincoln Project

Pollster Andrew Wilson on the GOP Crack-Up and Harris’s Surge

The Lincoln Project

The Lincoln Project

Society & Culture, Daily News, News, Politics

4.78.4K Ratings

🗓️ 29 August 2024

⏱️ 25 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Rick talks to Andrew Wilson about Harris’s surge in the polls since becoming the nominee, analyzing her approval ratings and her coalition’s evolving demographics. They also discuss the fracture within the Republican Party, and the impossibility of keeping Trump on-message. Follow Rick Wilson at @TheRickWilson on X and subscribe to his Substack at therickwilson.substack.com. Join the fight with Lincoln Project at www.lincolnproject.us and follow us on X at @ProjectLincoln. And please like, rate and review this podcast, thank you! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Your enemy is well trained, well equipped in battle heart.

0:05.6

There is not a liberal America and a conservative America,

0:09.6

there is the United States of America. Good night and good luck.

0:16.0

Hey folks and welcome back to the Lincoln Project Podcast.

0:19.0

I'm your host Rick Wilson and joining me today is Andrew Wilson,

0:22.0

who in addition to having been

0:24.1

born my son is also a brilliant pollster and today we are going to talk about

0:28.4

polling the numbers the data the inside story of what's happening in this campaign, especially in the weeks since

0:35.6

Joe Biden has left the race and Vice President Harris has become the Democratic nominee.

0:40.1

So Andrew, welcome to the podcast.

0:42.1

Thanks for coming on today.

0:43.1

I wanted to start with, give me your overview of where the polling has shifted since Vice President

0:49.4

Harris has become the Democratic nominee.

0:52.1

So I think two big things have happened.

0:54.4

I would say overall, we've moved to a Harris plus one

0:57.1

environment.

0:58.9

But to be clear, that still is electorally favorable

1:01.6

towards Trump, it's still going to be a very tight race and a serious fight in the

1:08.4

states that we already recognize as battle around states.

1:10.8

Everything that we've seen so far in the public polling is still within the margin of error, so we are

1:17.2

unsure about Harris's lead at this point, but it's looking a lot more promising, especially when you factor in her approval rating, which has been climbing exponentially since Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed her.

1:32.0

It's pretty much turned on its head from what

...

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