Polls, nuns and life partners
More or Less
BBC
4.6 • 3.7K Ratings
🗓️ 1 May 2015
⏱️ 24 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
On the eve of the UK's general election, Tim Harford takes a look at what polling data can tell us about predicting elections. Is the number of Catholic nuns on the up? What's the long-term trend – are more women becoming nuns in the UK? Tim Harford looks at the figures. Plus, Matt Parker the stand-up mathematician is invited back to the programme to respond to a listener's query about his theory on the best way to find a life partner.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Thank you for downloading this program from BBC Radio 4. I'm Tim Halford. |
| 0:05.6 | Hello and welcome to more or less, the program that looks for the truth behind the numbers in news, |
| 0:12.0 | in life, and yes, in politics. This week we'll be asking whether the nation really is reading |
| 0:18.6 | no better than an 11-year-old, and we'll return to the mathematics behind both optimal dating |
| 0:24.8 | and jogging yourself to death. But first, |
| 0:30.5 | with less than a week to go before polling day, more or less is visiting a key constituency |
| 0:36.4 | that's been unjustly ignored by the mainstream media. |
| 0:45.2 | Yes, Trump and Sure, it's a key marginal constituency currently held by the Conservatives, |
| 0:50.7 | boasting traditional labour supporting areas near the Cressley Biscuit factory in Chigley, |
| 0:55.2 | alongside the staunchly conservative market town of Trumpton. |
| 0:59.2 | Royal listeners may recall that I spent some time as treasurer of Trumptonshire County Council myself, |
| 1:04.6 | but I'm not involved in the parliamentary battle. I'm just curious as to who will be elected |
| 1:09.5 | as Trumptonshire's MP. Time for a quick wing around to take Trumptonshire's political temperature. |
| 1:21.6 | Hello, Mrs. Minton here. Oh, hello, this is Tim Hartford calling. I'm just phoning to find out |
| 1:27.5 | who people are going to vote for next week. Do you do this for a living? Oh, no, no, I'm not a |
| 1:32.1 | pollster. I'm a radio presenter, but Trumptonshire is a key marginal, and I'm just trying to work out |
| 1:38.0 | if it's likely to stay conservative. I hear that you voted Tory last time. That's right. |
| 1:43.2 | Do you think you'll vote for them again? Oh, I don't know. Oh, well, thank you, Mrs. Minton. |
| 1:48.3 | Yes, goodbye. Let's try another voter. |
| 1:52.8 | Hello, Clamp here. Oh, hello, Mr. Clamp. I'm just ringing round trying to get an idea of how |
| 1:57.2 | people are going to vote next week. Oh, I see. Can I ask you who you're going to vote for? |
| 2:01.6 | No, no luck. What other next? Oh, dear. This isn't very successful. We'll have to try something else. |
... |
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