Playoff Trends, Issues With NHL Shot Data, and Stanley Cup Futures
The Hockey PDOcast
Sportsnet
4.8 • 920 Ratings
🗓️ 23 May 2024
⏱️ 52 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | Regressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filipovich. |
| 0:18.0 | Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name is Dimitri Philovich and joining me is my good buddy, Robb, what's going on in? |
| 0:23.7 | Hey, Dimitri, thanks for having me again. It's always a treat to get you on. You know, I have always got a couple weeks of window every year to get you on. We need that sweet spot where you're far enough removed from the NFL season so you don't have football brain anymore, |
| 0:42.3 | but you're dialed into the NHL postseason, and then I start messaging you, and I got to get you on for your takes, and to apply some much needed critical thought to what we're seeing |
| 0:47.0 | and look at it through a different lens. So I'm excited to have you on today, and I think we're |
| 0:50.6 | going to have a really fun conversation. I've been ranting to you about, |
| 0:55.0 | in the messages, of course, not publicly, but we will air some of it here about the state of shot |
| 1:02.1 | data in hockey. And it's something that I've certainly talked about in the podcast a bunch this |
| 1:07.1 | postseason because it feels like we really reached an apex of it of sorts right now. |
| 1:12.8 | You're looking at the shot counter during some of these games and it's wildly suppressed. |
| 1:17.4 | And I know Dom wrote about this that the athletic part of it is just teams trying harder defensively, |
| 1:22.1 | right? So you're getting more block shots. I think teams are realizing what works and doesn't |
| 1:26.6 | offensively in today's game. |
| 1:27.9 | So they're kind of prioritizing, looking for quality scoring chances as opposed to just |
| 1:32.2 | throwing Pucks wildly on net. |
| 1:33.7 | You're seeing a lot of that stuff. |
| 1:35.1 | And I think it helps that we're whittling it down to higher quality teams as well, right? |
| 1:39.2 | So they're more likely to play that way in a positive EV fashion. |
| 1:43.9 | But at the same time, it's 2024 and a lot of the public data and a lot of the shot data itself is still so wildly off from being accurate and refined. |
| 1:57.0 | And I'm not sure how we sort of incorporate that in a satisfying fashion in our analysis. |
| 2:03.6 | Yeah, it's actually extremely challenging and I think it poses or leads to a lot of interesting |
| 2:10.0 | debate online in terms of what teams really are because people are using data to try to justify |
... |
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