PG75: How Trump Won, Putrid Polls, & The Future of the Parties

The Politics Guys

Michael Baranowski

Politics, News

4.5 • 772 Ratings

🗓️ 13 November 2016

⏱️ 56 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Essentially all of the pre-election polls were wrong, and the Politics Guys start out by explaining why that was. Mike points out that the only people who got it close to right were political scientists, using election predictions based on fundamental conditions. (Mike also offers his apologies for ignoring his profession’s own models and getting … Continue reading "PG75: How Trump Won, Putrid Polls, & The Future of the Parties"Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/the-politics-guys/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0	Good morning. Good afternoon. Good evening, wherever you are. And welcome to the politics guys with your host, Jay Carson and Michael Baranowski.
0:17.3	Welcome to the politics guys. I'm Michael Baranowski, a political scientist at Northern Kentucky
0:22.3	University. My co-host this week, as always, is Cleveland Area Attorney and sometime Republican
0:27.7	strategist Jay Carson. On Tuesday, Americans elected Donald Trump, a billionaire real estate developer
0:34.6	and reality TV star with no previous experience in elective office
0:38.9	to be their next president, choosing him over Hillary Clinton, a former first lady, United
0:44.0	States Senator and Secretary of State.
0:46.9	Now, the pre-election polls had Clinton as a huge favorite, and our predictions were
0:50.5	very much in line with those polls.
0:52.8	Donald Trump's win is the biggest shock to
0:55.0	presidential election forecasters since 1948, I'd say, nearly 70 years ago when Harry Truman
1:02.1	defeated Thomas Dewey, and it's left the political establishment utterly stunned. Now, on today's
1:08.2	show, we're going to focus on four things.
1:12.7	How the polls got it so wrong?
1:16.0	Why Donald Trump won or why Hillary Clinton lost?
1:18.4	What happened in down-ballot elections?
1:21.4	And finally, where the parties go from here.
1:26.0	Now, there's a fifth question of what we can potentially expect from a Donald Trump presidency.
1:28.1	That's kind of a show in and of itself, and it's going to be the topic of a special Ask the Politics guys, which will be
1:32.8	out on Wednesday.
1:34.7	So to get started, first off, what happened?
1:39.4	What happened with the polls?
	...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Previous episode | Next episode

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Michael Baranowski, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of Michael Baranowski and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.