'Path Matters More Than Prediction' – Assessing the Market Landscape for a 2023 'Melt Up'

Stansberry Investor Hour

Stansberry Research

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4.4 • 677 Ratings

🗓️ 17 January 2023

⏱️ 64 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

For today's episode of Stansberry Investor Hour, we've managed to reel in one of Dan's favorite Twitter personalities: Michael Gayed.

Michael is the brains behind The Lead-Lag Report, a long-term investment strategy newsletter.

According to Michael, "Path matters more than prediction, "... especially in the credit event and the market rally he sees possible in 2023. He relies on multiple indicators that "get ahead of highly volatile regime shifts in equities," and "when they [the indicators] all give you the same message, that's your tell."

Michael also breaks down the lumber-to-gold indicator for market moves... the fallacies in market timing and adapting to the market... the meaning behind his Twitter profile picture... and more.

Plus, you'll also hear Dan and Corey discuss how stock bulls pinning their hopes on a Fed pivot could be in for a disappointment and the latest in shenanigans from the duo's favorite dethroned crypto king.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hello and welcome to the Stansberry Investor Hour. I'm your host, Dan Ferris. I'm also the editor of Extreme Value and the Ferris Report, both published by Stansberry Research.
0:16.0	And I'm Corey McLaughlin, editor of the Stansberry Daily Digest. Today, Dan talks with Michael Gaiad, publisher of the lead lag report.
0:23.9	For today's rant, we just can't resist talking about SBF, the CPI, and Greg Diamond's weird cycle chart.
0:30.8	And remember, you can email us at Feedback at InvestorHour.com and tell us what's on your mind.
0:36.2	That and more right now on the Stansbury InvestorHour.com and tell us what's on your mind. That and more right now on the Stansbury Investor Hour.
0:41.4	Well, he's back. I mean, I don't want to talk about Sam Bankman-Fried all the time, but he keeps coming back.
0:51.2	Like, he must be the worst client for an attorney in the world because he will not
0:56.0	shut his mouth. And now he's taken to Substack. Like, he's been arrested. He's been charged.
1:02.0	And he's taken to Substack to keep babbling about, you know, his excuses and what went on. I just,
1:08.1	I can't believe of this guy. Yeah, it keeps surprising us.
1:12.0	Like, maybe he shouldn't at this point. But it was, um, when I saw those couple headlines this
1:16.1	week, he did an interview from under house arrest, uh, which is always nice. And then he
1:20.6	started his own substack newsletter. So it's, uh, I had the same thought. He's back. It's like
1:27.0	a, he's at this point, it seems like a fallen celebrity who, uh, I had the same thought. He's back. It's like a, he's, at this point, he seems like a fallen
1:29.4	celebrity who is just trying to hang on to some shred of popularity at this point to me,
1:36.3	more than anything. Yes. Yeah. Absolutely. He's, he's, um, and the tone of the thing, you know,
1:42.2	it, it comes off that way, too.
1:44.6	It's like there's this underlying implication all along when he says, for example, like, you know, the same thing that crashed our assets, 80 or 90% or whatever it was, crashed everybody else's too.
1:56.7	So, you know, as if to say, that wasn't particular to us so not my fault it's just like yeah but it was
2:05.1	particular it was very particular to them you know that there's a lot of things that have been
2:11.8	down 80 90% this year and haven't you, bankrupted an entire business and screwed over other
2:20.2	customers. So it is very particular. And been charged with fraud. Yeah, and been charged in the
	...

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