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Peak Prosperity

Overvalued Equities Are Ignoring These Seven Recession Indicators

Peak Prosperity

Chris Martenson

Government, Investing, Business

4.7591 Ratings

🗓️ 15 August 2025

⏱️ 78 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

August is usually a quiet market month. But the creaking and popping sounds coming from the economy are suddenly quite difficult to ignore. What happens when stock that are priced for perfection slam into a long-overdue recession? They fall.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

Nothing in this program should be considered investment advice.

0:03.2

It is for educational purposes only.

0:05.3

Please hit pause and read this disclaimer in full.

0:11.5

We're back to running trillion-dollar deficits every hundred days now.

0:16.7

Remember we complained about that so much last year in the prior administration.

0:21.3

So it seems like the only thing they know to do is just spend us into oblivion and hope it all works out.

0:27.8

The following is the audio version of a video released at peak prosperity.com.

0:33.5

Visit peak prosperity.com to watch the video and to find other insightful content, such as articles, discussion forums, and exclusive subscriber-only content.

0:51.0

Hello, everybody. Welcome to this episode of Finance You. I'm your host, Dr. Chris Martinson. It's August. We're in the doldrums of August, but we've got some really important stuff to talk to you about today.

1:00.5

We're going to be looking at just well how super duper crazy these markets are right now, but it's a tale of two worlds. There's a headline number. What's lurking beneath the surface? Some things to be cautious about there. And then we're

1:11.3

going to talk about the recession indicators that are now flashing bright red. So Paul, really

1:17.0

looking forward to having this conversation today. Me too. Lots to talk about and happy dog days.

1:22.8

We're officially in the dog days, right? So, yes. So happy doldrums. Yeah, happy doldrums. Yeah, sure. Well, I mean, I get it. You know, people shouldn't have to pay attention. We should all get a month off. I think Europe's got August right. But still, something's going on right now. We've got to talk about some of them. So super-dooper nuts. We talked about how nuts the markets were last time, so I had to put a super-duper in front of it this time.

1:46.3

So here's something I came across, which is this is a historical trend line, and so this is on a log chart, so a straight line account means it's growing logarithmically, right?

1:58.4

And it starts in 1870, comes through to current. And I think

2:02.2

what's immediately obvious is that it spends, you know, sometime above the trend and a little bit of

2:08.2

time below the trend and above the trend and below the trend. This is the great, you know,

2:11.7

market crash of this is the whole Great Depression era right here, right? And then it goes back above

2:16.6

trend here and we've got our nifty 50s and we're below trend. This is the whole Great Depression era right here, right? And then it goes back above trend here, and we've got our nifty 50s and we're below trend.

2:20.7

This is one of the longest, biggest departures.

2:23.3

It's now actually as of today, re-adding this, I think it's at 173%.

2:29.3

Way above trend, never been this high off of trend, never been this far away from trend. Latest price, there it is, yeah, 173% above trend never been this high off of trend never been this far away from trend

...

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