We are there two birthdays on this call right now. There are

June 6th is Sarah and June 7th is Nathaniel. It's right. What'd you get at scaling?

This podcast.

Thank you

Hello, and welcome to the 538 politics podcast. I'm Galen Druke

We've got a lot to discuss today last week.

Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25 point margin

The seat was vacated when Democrat Deb Holland became secretary of the interior and was expected to remain in democratic control

But Stanbury's big margin surpassed expectations today

We're going to talk about what that race and other indicators can tell us about the national environment

We'll also look at some of the big questions facing the parties like the position Joe Manchin

Staked out in an op-ed over the weekend and the re-emergence of former president Trump on the stump also this weekend

Then finally we're going to mark a tradition here at 538, which is checking our own work

So after each election cycle we like to take a look at how well calibrated our forecast models were and be transparent about what we find

So that report is going to be coming out this week and we will give you a preview of what we found on this podcast

So definitely stay tuned for that and be breaking news on this podcast today

Here with me to do all of that are editor-in-chief Nate Silver, hey, Nate

Hey everybody. How's it going?

Good having a lacroy. I shouldn't this is that product placement. It's not lacroy. I passed money to

Lacroy sponsor the podcast

All's here with us is politics editor Sarah Frostensen. Hey Sarah

Hey, Galen. How's it going? Good good not McCroy, but San Peligrino. So yes, bubbly waters

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