ON THE EDGE (Part 1): Nate Silver on Politics, Poker, and Risk-Taking

The Next Big Idea

Next Big Idea Club

Self-improvement, Arts, Books, Society & Culture, Education

4.5 • 1.3K Ratings

🗓️ 12 August 2024

⏱️ 42 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

You probably know Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, as the statistician with an uncanny knack for predicting election results. What you may not know is that Nate has never been comfortable inside the Beltway. Before his election models made him famous, he made his living playing poker, and it's in that world that he feels most at home. Recently, Nate has been reflecting on his poker-playing pals, and he realized many of them are part of a broader community of analytically-minded, ultra-competitive, not-afraid-to-bet-the-house individuals that he now calls "the River." Members of the River are everywhere. They're tech titans, Masters of the Universe — increasingly, it feels like they run the world. How the River rose to power and what that means for the rest of us is the subject of Nate's sprawling new book, "On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.” 🎁 Get 20% off a Next Big Idea Club membership when you use the code PODCAST at nextbigideaclub.com

Transcript

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0:00.0	LinkedIn presents.
0:05.0	I'm Rufus Grisscom and this is the next big idea.
0:10.0	Today, Nate Silver on poker, politics, and the art of risking everything. Do you've been on an emotional roller coaster for the last decade?
0:34.8	Do you follow American politics?
0:37.4	If you do, you've been on an emotional roller coaster for the last decade.
0:44.0	The stakes have never seemed higher.
0:47.0	Sometimes it feels like the future of the world,
0:50.0	at least the world we recognize, hangs in the balance.
0:54.4	In the midst of all this chaos, Nate Silver,
0:57.5	the founder of 538, emerged as a voice of reason,
1:01.5	calmly predicting likely election outcomes and explaining the math.
1:06.0	He's a Spock-like figure soothing our histrionics with his statistical models.
1:12.0	In 2008, he correctly called 49 out of 50 states. In 2012.
1:18.8	So Nate, obviously a great night for the president, but also a great night for you and your forecast model which is
1:23.9	is performing pretty much perfectly right now I think depending on what
1:27.5	then in 2016 Nate you nail 2008 you nailed 2012.
1:33.2	Where do you have the race today?
1:34.7	So we have Hillary Clinton getting about 300 electoral votes,
1:37.4	have her leading by about three points nationally.
1:40.2	And she's about a two to one favorite to win tomorrow in our model's view.
1:44.3	We all know how that turned out.
1:46.3	When the election was called for Trump, I remember feeling sucker punched in a state of shock
	...

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